A couple of winless division rivals hookup Sunday when the Jacksonville Jaguars host the Indianapolis Colts and the latest Week 3 NFL odds show the road team favored by -7 with a total of O/U 45.5. Each of these teams was shredded by Philly for 30 points and 400-plus yards. Indy was also lit up for 31 points in Denver while the Jags’ latest loss came at the hands of a backup in Washington. The average points per game for these teams are 53.5 and that’s tempting bettors with a play on the “Over” but we’re seeing value here on the other end.
Indianapolis has averaged 26.2 points in divisional road play the past two seasons but other than Houston (2012), the defensive units they faced all ranked in the bottom half for league scoring. Through two weeks the Jags (37.5) rank dead last in points allowed but in the past, teams who gave up more than 30 points in back-to-back games have shown a tendency to tighten things up. When the total is less than O/U 53 these teams have a record of 10 overs and 21 unders in Week 3 including a 2-6 O/U mark since 2011.
Jacksonville is expecting Jonathan Cyprien back in the lineup to help bolster a D who held the Eagles scoreless through 30 minutes in Week 1. Cyprien is a difference maker and at home, where the Jags are 12-22 to the under all-time in September, getting him healthy is a big plus. The Jags also get WRs Allen Hurns and Cecil Shorts back to help Chad Henne’s cause. With more options to stretch the field, the ground game opens up and Jacksonville’s time of possession (25:06) could inch its way towards respectability.
Don’t expect the Jags to come anywhere close to the numbers Philly and Denver put up against Indy’s D; this team is winless for a reason. But with home field and a few key personnel back in the lineup we’ll look for a better overall performance from the home dog that helps keep this one under the number.
Take the Under