Written by Jeff Allen of Jeff Allen Sports
With most teams having at least 40 games in the books, we’ve already effectively reached the first half of this years NBA season. There have been plenty of storylines including the the Cleveland Cavalier’s slow start after the return of Lebron James. Breakout seasons for the Hawks and Golden State. The total collapse of the New York Knicks and Oklahoma City’s early playoff hole after losing Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook for extended periods of time also rate mention. These are some of my first half impressions.
At 21-20 the Cavaliers are languishing in 6th place in an improved but top to bottom mediocre NBA East. The Cavs have struggled with chemistry issues from the start which was expected, but the slow start has also caused problems in the locker room and has raised doubts about head coach David Blatt. Add a knee injury to King James and you have a team in turmoil. To their credit, the Cavs have not sat pat and have made some moves to improve their roster. Moving Dion Waiters anywhere was addition by subtraction and they did manage to get a sorely lacking perimeter defensive stopper in Iman Shumpert in the deal along with streak shooter J.R. Smith who will provide instant offense on occasion. The Cavs also went out and got wide bodied rim protector Timofey Mozgov from the Nuggets. Mozgov notched a double-double in his first game with the Cavs and will ultimately be a nice fit as a secondary player that does not need to get a lot of touches.
Much of the problems seem to revolve around coach David Blatt and they are not all entirely of his making. Blatt is an American that played at Princeton and then spent his entire playing career in Europe where he also cut his teeth as a coach. He’s had lots of success including coaching Spain to the European Championship in 2007 and lots off success with club teams. He has NBA experience at all or familiarity with the league and the players. That was all before the Lebron deal was finalized. He has little to no credibility with his own players or his opponents and to this point he has completely failed at establishing a rotation and mismanaged the handling of Kevin Love. Blatt got the infamous vote of confidence from ownership but is clearly outmatched in this job and likely to be go by the playoffs. Assistant coach Tyronn Lue, an on staff assistant who was a Doc Rivers protege, would be a good replacement.
Then there is Lebron James. The King is 30 now, with a lot of highway miles that we saw evidence of in December when James sat out three weeks with a sore knee. His numbers are down slightly but his presence on the floor is a must as evidenced by the fact that Cleveland is 1-8 in the games he hasn’t played. Lebron has taken a wait and see approach until now letting players establish their roles, in particular loose cannon Kyrie Irving. We’ve already seen Lebron takes steps to reclaim his team and you can expect the greatest player on the planet to have a big second half while the Cavs slowly round into a more cohesive unit.
Don’t look now but the Atlanta Hawks are 32-8, lead the Eastern Conference by five full games and they are not going away! Hotlanta has won eleven straight, 16 of 18 and 30-3 in their L33 overall. More importantly, they’ve been an ATM machine the way we keep score going 9-0-1 ATS in their L10 and 19-3-1 ATS in their L23. The Hawks are as chemistry rich as the Cavs are chemistry poor. Quarterbacked by under-appreciated PG Jeff Teague who followed Chris Paul at Wake Forest, Teague gets everyone involved while averaging an unselfish 17.4 ppg. and dropping almost eight dimes per game. Paul Milsap and Al Horford are the transmission of a professional hard working front court that brings it’s linch pail ever night while combining for 32 points and 15 rebounds per game. Journeyman sniper Kyle Korver is knocking down 52.7% of his threes and the bench is full of lunch pail type role players that get it. The Hawks are in the top seven in virtually every significant offensive and defensive category. Don’t be surprised if the Hawks don’t come back to field but rather run off with the East. Atlanta is also one of the few Eastern Conference teams to have any type of success against the West and swept Utah, Portland and the Clippers in their last West coast trip.
Golden State has entrenched itself as the best in the West. Bringing in Steve Kerr was more of a calming effect than anything else and the players have responded to the more easy going atmosphere than they had with the more intense and regimented Mark Jackson. Stephen Curry and Klay Thompson are arguably the best shooting back court of the last 30 years. Draymond Green is a shut down defensive player that can score. Andre Iguodala, a 2012 Olympian in London and big money free agent acquisition has bought in and comes off the bench. The Warriors are deep and very very good. The key to this team advancing in the playoffs could be the health of big man Andrew Bogut. Golden State is good without him, nearly unbeatable with him. Golden State also wins by margin as their 14-5-1 ATS mark over their L20 will attest.
Carmelo Anthony might have another 128 million coming to him over the next several years but it is as good as blood money when you play with the 5-36 Knicks. Hiring Phil Jackson as GM has made a bad situation even worse and there is no end in site for Knicks who currently start a lineup of Jose Calderon, Mello, Shane Larkin, Jason Smith and the gimpy Amare Stoudamire. The Knicks are on a franchise record 16 game losing streak and have lost 25 of 26 overall. New York has been an excellent fade going 2-11-1 ATS in their L14 while catching five points or more in every game. Blowing the whole thing up is not much of an option. The Knicks seem destined to finish with the worst record in the NBA this year and will indeed have a pick but their two 2016 first round picks went in the Carmelo/Bargnani deals and the 2018 pick is reportedly being dangled out there for a rental that will bring some sort of relief. This is going to be a very bad team for a very long time.
Oklahoma City was thought to be a contender if not the biggest threat to derail the Spurs in the ultra-competitive West. That pretty much went out the window with the loss of Kevin Durant in the preseason and Russell Westbrook a few games in. Both players missed extended time and both came back early but it just might be enough to overcome the Thunder’s 3-12 start. After a minor run, OKC is 7-7 SU and 4-10 ATS in their L14 and at 19-20, sit tied with the Pelicans for ninth a full 3.5 games back of Phoenix for the eight spot in the West. Barring injuries, none of the first seven teams in the West figure to fade meaning it’s Phoenix, New Orleans and OKC playing for one remaining spot and a probable date with Golden State. Not a daunting task but certainly a challenge.