The Oakland Raiders’ current 16-game losing streak dates back to November 24, 2013 and judging by the line movement for Thursday’s game against Kansas City, early betting activity is rolling heavy toward the road team. The Chiefs opened at -6, were at -6.5 by midnight Sunday and are now fetching bids on ATS odds of -7 with a price. A few sportsbooks have added the hook and one football wagering site suggests 74-percent of all bets placed favor KC.
It’s clear the Chiefs have an upper hand in this matchup from head coach, to quarterback to the stable of healthy running backs and a defense ranked 12th in the league, but there is always an argument for a divisional home dog getting at least a touchdown. Here are three things to consider Thursday when betting the Chiefs at Raiders.
1. Due Factor
Streaks are meant to be broken, or so the saying goes, and KC’s ATS win streak hit nine-straight with last week’s win over the Seahawks. The truth is, NFL teams on a cover streak of nine or more games have scored an average of 31 points per game since 1992 and none scored fewer than 27. Remember the old argument for betting into a streak, too: You can only lose once!
2. Thursday Records
Alex Smith is 3-2 SU/ATS on Thursday including a 26-16 win last season over a Philadelphia Eagles team who averaged 27 points per game. All five of Smith’s Thursday starts stayed under the total and only one opponent scored more than 16 points. The Raiders are 1-6 SU their past seven Thursday dates (2-5 ATS) and they lost the only home game 26-13. Five of those seven games stayed under the number.
3. Stat Pack
The Raiders are last in the NFL with 26:16 average minutes of possession per game and home dogs of +6 or +7 points who don’t possess the ball for more than 28 minutes are 24-38-4 ATS since 1990, a 39-percent hit rate. Oakland’s offense also ranks dead last in scoring (15.2 points) and total yards per game (276) while the Chiefs defense ranks second (17.1 points) and eighth (326 yards) in those respective categories.
NFL underdogs are coming off their best showing since Week 1 (11-5 ATS) and the Raiders have two covers in the past three weeks but Thursday night road faves are 13-7 ATS (65-percent) since re-alignment. There’s always a chance Oakland can sneak in the backdoor but they’ll need a flawless game to do it.
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