Saturday, January 10, 2015 (4:35 PM EST)
Vegas Line at this writing: New England -7 (47.5)
These teams have met three times in the playoffs since 2009, all three games at New England. The Ravens are 3-0 ATS winning twice straight up. Tom Brady’s QBR is 56.3 in those games. The teams met December 22nd last year in the regular season after Baltimore had already mailed it in and the Pats were more than happy to administer a 41-7 beat down. The Pats led 17-0 at the half as the Ravens turned the ball over four times for the game, three times on Joe Flacco picks.
Baltimore: The Ravens have made the playoffs six times in seven years under John Harbaugh and and for whatever reason, Baltimore just seems to have a playoff swagger, especially on the road. Joe Flacco’s seven road playoff wins are the most by any QB since the 1970 merger and the cannoned armed seven-year man out of Delaware rocks a 13-0 TD/Int ratio over his last five post season games. The Baltimore defense is its usual run stopping self and while the secondary has shown weakness at times, the Ravens get good quarterback pressure up the middle and from the edge with Dumervil and Suggs who combined for 29 sacks. Baltimore systematically took apart the Steelers last week and have nothing to lose here.
New England: We’re sure that the Patriots would much rather be seeing the Steelers here and with good reason as the Brady/Belichick combo is 17-1 in Gillette Stadium facing anyone not wearing a Raven helmet. New England was unbeaten at home this year prior to their meaningless Week 17 loss to the Bill in a game where “The Hoodie” uncharacteristically rested many of his starters. The Pats fear nobody and including Baltimore knowing the beat up the Blackbirds in their last meeting. New England has seven wins by 22+ this year and are 16-4 in their L20 as a single-digit home fave. That said, the Pats have not offered much value in the post season going 3-10 ATS in their L13 playoff games overall which includes a 3-7 versus the points in their L10 home playoff games. Are the Ravens just a bad H2H matchup for the Pats?
Allen’s Angles
The Ravens are 10-2 ATS off their L12 division games, 5-1 ATS off a division win
Baltimore is 5-11 ATS the L3 years off back-to-back straight up wins
The Ravens are 16-8 the L3 years playing on artificial turf
Baltimore is 5-1 Over this year vs. teams with winning records
Baltimore is 7-4 SU and 8-3 ATS on the playoff highway under Harbaugh
The Ravens haven’t allowed a 100 yard rusher in 27 games
New England is just 3-7 ATS in their L10 as a playoff host
New England is 15-8 ATS the L3 years vs. winning records, 7-2 this year
The Pats are 18-9 Over the L3 years playing at home
New England is 4-1 Over the L3 years off a bye
Tom Brady is 18-3 in 21 home playoff games, 1-2 versus the Ravens
Get the side and total for this game, to be used for the teaser and parlay; yours FREE: call me now at 1-800-664-8920.