While talking about games last week with some of the people I crunch numbers with, the topic turned to home dogs. Now home dog angles have been a staple of handicapping 101 for decades, the most famous of which was the Monday Night Football home dog. If you had bet every MNF home dog in the blind during the 80s and 90s, you are probably living in Ibiza or Belize, sipping on a red drink with an umbrella. That trend has fallen on hard times of late, even becoming a losing proposition over the last ten years or so. Someone brought up that since week ten of the NFL that home dogs were just 5-9 straight up but 11-3 ATS so we decided to take a look.
Over the L10 years of the NFL, home dogs after week ten were 105-267 SU and 167-192-3 ATS
Over the L5 years of the NFL, home dogs after week 10 were 51-122 SU and 82-83-8 ATS
Last year in the NFL after ten weeks, home were 16-38 SU and 28-24-2 ATS
This year after ten weeks, home dogs were 5-9 SU and 11-3 ATS but went 2-5 SU and ATS this week making this angle 7-14 SU and 13-8 ATS, somewhat profitable but nothing special and possible in a state of regressing to the norm.
Just a little FYI …..
Home dogs for all of 2013 went 32-54 SU and were 44-41-1 ATS
Home dogs currently in 2014 are 22-42 SU and 31-33 ATS
If you are a dedicated trend player or trends are an important part of your handicapping arsenal, sometimes just slightly tweaking the parameters of your search will produce money making results. While home dogs since week ten in itself has been a loser or break even proposition at best over time, consider this …..
There are currently five home dogs in the NFL this week at this writing. Two are small, in the 1-2 point range but don’t figure to change (swing to favoritism) so we’ll use them here. The games are …..
Buffalo +5 at home to Green Bay
Atlanta +1.5 at home to Pittsburgh
Tennessee +1.5 at home to the Jets
San Diego +4.5 at home to Denver
Chicago +3 home to the Saints (Monday Night)
Here’s info worth noting:
A home dog after week ten that was a dog in it’s previous game playing at team that was also a dog in it’s previous game is 3-10 SU and 3-10 ATS in it’s L13. A play this week would be AGAINST the Titans or ON the Jets.
A home dog after week ten that covered it’s previous game playing a team that did not cover it’s previous game is 3-9 SU and ATS L12. Currently on a 6-0 run. A play this week would be AGAINST the Bills or ON the Packers.
A home dog after week ten that is off a cover play a team that is also laying off a cover is 7-12 SU and ATS L19.
A play this week would be AGAINST the Chargers or ON the Broncos.
Food for thought for trend players.
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