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The second semi-final matchup on the late show from Dallas pits Michigan State and Alabama, the two and three seeds respectively. While the first game features two big play offenses, the nightcap features to be a physical slugfest with each team trying to impose its will on the other. Many thought from the beginning of the year that 12-1 Michigan State would be in this spot. While unimpressive early, Sparty did beat Oregon in their highly anticipated early revenge game and opened the season with eight straight wins before an inexplicable fourth quarter melt down vs. Nebraska. Mich State did rebound to beat Ohio State on a final play field goal and then used a 22 play late drive to beat Iowa in the Big Ten championship game. Alabama stumbled against a very talented Ole Miss team early but them hammered their next 10 opponents to win the SEC and punch its ticket. The Crimson Tide opened up as a -9 point favorite which has been bet up to -9.5 or 10 in most houses. The total opened at 49 and has dropped like a rock to it’s 46 at this writing. Weather in Dallas is expected to be perfect with the temperature in the low 50s and the humidity a comfortable 57%.
For the most part, Michigan State has taken care of its business but not in the dominating fashion that most expected. The Spartans killed players at the windows going 6-0 straight up but 0-6 ATS in its first six games. Quarterback Connor Cook (57%, 2921, 24/5) had a very average senior season and the Spartans were unable to find the one dominating back that they’ve featured for almost a decade. L.J. Scott (691, 11 TDs) was the best of three backs that had significant carries. Aaron Burbridge had 80 catches for 1219 yards but only found the end zone seven times. The Michigan State defense was not expected to be as good as recent editions after being stripped clean in the back seven by graduation. That proved to be the case early on but the Sparty stop unit rose to to the occasion in the big wins over Ohio State and Iowa.
Alabama comes in as the perpetual invite and tonight they’ll have the opportunity to make right last year’s mauling at the hands of Ohio State. The Tide offense features Heisman Trophy winner Derrick Henry (1986, 5.9, 23 TDs) who is a bruising back that can carry the ball 40 times and still be stronger in the fourth quarter than the first. The “weakest link” on Bama is quarterback Jake Coker (66%, 2489, 17/8) who at the end of the day is a pretty good game manager when not forced to make a play or play from behind. The Tide rarely throw the ball deep with Coker and pretty much stick to short and intermediate routes with Calvin Ridley (75, 893) and Ardarius Stewart (54, 600). Alabama has the best front seven in college football and are first in the nation in sacks and defending the run, second overall. The secondary has been a pleasant surprise and has gotten better over the course of the season.
These two met in the Capital One Bowl in 2010 in a game that actually jump-started the Michigan State program. In that game, a three loss Alabama team that didn’t even play in the SEC Championship game spanked an 11-1 Michigan State team 49-7. That Michigan State team featured Kirk Cousins (sacked five times) and Le’veon Bell (28-48) and to to that point, Michigan State was 0-4 in Bowls under Dantonio. Michigan State is 4-0 in Bowl since and have made a living playing as a dog going 11-1-1 L13 with nine straight up wins. Perhaps the two biggest questions to this game and the final margin is the health of Connor Cook and whether or not the Spartan defense can hold up under the relentless pounding of the Crimson Tide ground game. Cook has been nursing a bad shoulder on his throwing arm but is reported to be close to 100% with the extended time off. He’ll need to throw the ball and complete a much higher percentage of passes than he did in the regular season if Michigan State is to be competitive never mind have any inkling of an upset bid.
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