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Two teams that until recent years would have squared off in the Rose Bowl meet this year in the Holiday Bowl in a classic Big Ten vs. Pac 12 matchup. Both teams were a notch below recent editions but both teams have overcome some recent adversity and appear to be on stable ground and building for the future. The 9-3 Badgers were just third best in the Big Ten West while the 8-5 Trojans were runners up in the Pac 12 South. USC open as a field goal favorite, was bet up half a point and now looks to have settled in at three. The total opened at 51 and has been bet down to 50. It should be perfect football weather at Qualcomm Park in San Diego with the temperature in the low 60’s for the 10:30 PM EST kickoff on ESPN.
Wisconsin is rolling with its third coach in four years but despite a lack of talent overall, should return quickly as a major Big Ten conference player with Paul Chryst. The Badgers power running game and feature back offense was nowhere to be found this year and QB Joel Stave has been a nightmare throwing the ball (60%, 2470, 11/10) or making plays. In fact, the Wisky offense finished 97th nationally without facing Michigan State, Michigan or Ohio State. The defense has been staunch ranking top six in every national defensive metric run and pass and was third overall in yards allowed. Although the Badgers registered just 25 sacks, the y do get decent pressure on the quarterback.
USC has also had coaching issues but new HC Clay Helton has appeared to steady the ship after taking over mid-season. He fired the entire defensive staff after the second loss to Stanford so a simpler basic scheme can be expected here. Gunslinger Cody Kessler’s numbers weren’t bad (68%, 3315, 28/6) but nowhere near his junior year production. That could have been due to multiple injuries during the year on the offensive line and also because of the Trojans stockpile of quality skill position people. Justin Davis, Ronald Jones II and Tre Madden are all very good backs who numbers suffer from splitting carries. WR Ju Ju Smith (85, 1389, 10) will be first rounder in April. The Trojan defense has been susceptible to the pass, not a good thing in the Pac 12.
Wisconsin travels well regardless of the circumstance and figure to have huge crowd edge here as Badger fans need little reason to get out of the frigid Midwest during the holidays. Kessler gives USC a huge edge at quarterback, Stave is 30-10 as a starter and is backed by a ferocious defense that gives up a tick more than 13 points-per-game. Wisky also gets top WR Wheelwright back after missing five games with a leg injury. USC (-7) beat Nebraska 45-42 in this game last year so there is some familiarity but also a possible lack of motivation after enduring a season that was disappointing in many ways. Talent edge USC, focus edge to Wisconsin making this a tough overall game to call.
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