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Blog

Browns and Bengals Kicking off Week 10

by Jeff Allen of Jeff Allen Sports

Written by Jeff Allen of Jeff Allen Sports

The Cleveland Browns have just one win at Cincinnati since 2004 but they are 4-5-1 ATS in those 10 games and riding a two-game win streak as they look to keep pace in the AFC North.

The lines for this game are Cinci -6 with a total of 45 and before we get too wrapped in Cleveland’s win streak, let us first remember who those wins were against. Oakland (0-8) and Tampa Bay (1-7) are in a fierce battle for the No. 1 draft pick in April, 2015 and neither win was very convincing. Those games also came on the heels of a blowout loss to formerly winless Jacksonville, so let me make it clear – the recent win streak doesn’t mean we should lionize the Browns. Afterall, they’re still the Browns!

But does Cincinnati deserve to be favored by this many points against anyone? The Bengals D ranks 17th overall, gives up 395 yards per game and since Week 4 they’ve allowed an average of 31 points per game. Compare that to another pair of Week 10 divisional home favorites, Arizona (7-1) and Green Bay (5-3), and this line is giving the Bengals a lot of respect. Cinci has faced the Patriots, Colts and Ravens in the past five weeks and that does need to be taken into consideration. We should also point out that the spread has only factored into eight of the past 57 Thursday Night Football games so if you feel the Bengals are the better team, laying the points could be the way to go.

I’m going with the total for this contest and here’s a few reasons supporting the play. First of all, Thursday night road dogs of +6 or more are only scoring 14.8 points per game the past 10 years and that’s a by-product of the short week and travel. The Browns are also one of the more penalized teams in the leagues and when these clubs travel on a short week, the recent trend shows 2 overs and 8 unders, with games staying under by more than six points. The average line in those games: Home teams -6.3 and O/U 44.5

Cleveland is coming off a two-game homestand where they won both games against weaker opponents and road dogs in this spot are just 4-13 O/U (76-percent) since 1993. This is the first time these teams have met in 2014 and this exact situation has produced 7 overs and 26 unders the past five years (79-percent). These teams have played over three of the past seven times in Cinci, but those games only averaged 41.3 points. Look for this one to land short of the number.

 

For the side and total, for the parlay and teasers, absolutely free, call me now at 1-800-664-8920!

 

Key Sports Database Query Language information to consider:

AD and p:HW and pp:HW and week = pp:week + 2 and po:WP < 33 and ppo:WP < 33 and season >= 1993

SU:         8-9-0 (-1.18, 47.1%)                         Teaser Records

ATS:       8-6-3 (3.32, 57.1%)             avg line: 4.5      +6:  15-2-0 (88.2%)           -6:  7-10-0 (41.2%)            +10:  16-1-0 (94.1%)        -10:  4-13-0 (23.5%)

O/U:      4-13-0 (-5.71, 23.5%)         avg total: 39.5  +6:   2-15-0 (11.8%)          -6:   8-9-0 (47.1%)             +10:   2-15-0 (11.8%)       -10:   10-6-1 (62.5%)

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