The Atlanta Falcons returned home a few men short from their disappointing two-game road trip but the playmakers on offense are ready to prove that the early season success at home was no fluke. The line for Chicago at Atlanta is already up to ‘54’ but with an up-tempo Bears team rolling in, there is still opportunity to get in on what should be a high scoring football game.
Chicago’s ground game is finding its legs behind a healthier O-line and coach Mark Trestman is making sure that Matt Forte stays actively involved in this offense. Forte’s carries this year are 17-12-13-21-16 and he has 36 catches for 299 yards. In 2013, Forte set career highs for both receptions (74) and receiving yards (594) and he’s already on pace to better those records by Week 11. He has not rushed for a single TD yet this year (1 receiving TD) but his presence frees up space for the wideouts and buys Jay Cutler crucial time to make plays.
Atlanta ranks poorly on the defensive front seven against the rush and they are even worse against the pass. This is going to be a good opportunity for Forte and the Bears offense to break out and since Trestman took over, the Bears have been an over machine on the road, averaging more than 28 PPG (8-2-1 O/U). When the line is within three points of ‘Pick em’, the Falcons are 8-2 O/U at home off a loss and although the average total in those games was only 44.4, there is evidence these teams can crack 55 points.
NFL totals of more than O/U 51 this year are 4-2-1 O/U and they’ve finished at 50-percent or better every season since 2010. When the home team is coming off a loss the number jumps to 62-percent (23-14-1 O/U) and when this situation occurs during the first-half of the season, look out! The past 15 such games have produced a total of 12 overs and 3 unders, or 80-percent “Over”. Two of the three unders were divisional and a handful of the games were non-Conference. The record for non-divisional conference games since 2010 is 3-0 and all six teams scored a minimum of 27 points. Atlanta, at home off a loss when the line is within three points of ‘Pick em’ has scored 28-plus points seven consecutive times since Wk 12, 2008.
The books had a post a big number on this game and after sitting at 53.5 for the past few days, it’s finally edged up a half-point. While it’s unlikely to fall back down, this game is supported by several NFL betting systems projecting between 55 and 60 points.
Take the Bears and Falcons Over 54
For the side for this game, absolutely free, call me personally at 1-800-664-8920!
For more free winners, check out my YOUTUBE page.