There’s an old axiom among professional sports bettors that says, “You don’t pay juice when you win”. I’m thinking that that this old nugget really applies to the Dallas Cowboys 2014 season win total which opened up at eight wins with the vig shaded slightly to the under. It didn’t take long for the sharps to get all over this one, sending the juice to as high as -240 in early August.
That’s a huge move, even with the lower limits offered by books during the summer. You might ask yourself why would books move the vig rather than come off the eight wins. It is simply a case of books thinking their number is good and that they can either balance the books with late money on the over or simply getting out with a push. That said, as the NFL preseason progressed, it has become painfully obvious that the Cowboys are not very good. Some shops have gone to 7.5 wins -140. Books that have stayed on eight wins have the under ranging anywhere from -180 to -230 as of last week, so you must do your due diligence and shop around.
Now many would think that the horse is already out of the barn on betting the Cowboy win total under and at the big price tag that there is little or no value. That might be true but that is where our “You don’t pay juice” classic kicks in. A quick examination of the Cowboys and their schedules shows that this is a team that will be life and death to win 4-6 max making the vig irrelevant other than being tied up for five months.
Last year, the Dallas defense was statistically one of the 15 worst in NFL history. Last year, the Cowboys finished last in total defense by a considerable 20 yards-per-game over the Vikings – giving up a whopping 415.3 ypg. The Pokes were 27th in rush defense and 30th in pass defense while allowing better than 30 ppg. Things don’t figure to improve much this year with their best defensive player MLB Sean Lee out for the year with ACL surgery and their best corner, Orlando Scandrick out the first four games for violating the league’s PED policy.
While preseason is for the most part meaningless, it cannot be completely dismissed and on the defensive side of the ball, it was much of the same as 2013. America’s team was right back at it going 30th in total defense while allowing 393 ypg., much of it to guys that are on their way home to start new vocations. It will be up to the Cowboy offense to establish a running game to play defense by keeping the stop unit off the field. More likely it will Tony Romo having to outscore opponents and with the 34-year-old coming off major offseason back surgery, it remains to be seen whether or not The Star can even keep him on the field for 16 games. Romo was sacked three times and knocked down a number of times in the Cowboys 25-20 NFLX Week III dress rehearsal game at Miami.
Despite having the AFC South as their cross-over division, the Cowboy’s schedule is not easy by any means. Breaking it down in quarters gives you a much clearer idea of how tough it really is.
Dallas opens at home with San Francisco, at Tennessee, at St Louis and at home versus New Orleans. With the Titans much improved and with the Rams at home with Sean Hill having been able to get two games under his belt, the Cowboys could easily open the season 0-4. The second quarter has Big D home to Houston, at Seattle and then home in division games versus the Giants and Redskins. This will likely have the Cowboys 2-6 (possibly 3-5 if EVERYTHING falls right heading to the second half where they play five of their final seven games on the road). Games 9-12 are home to Arizona, at Jacksonville, at Giants off a bye week and home to Philadelphia. The final four includes at Chicago, at Philly, home to the Colts and at Washington in what will likely be a meaningless game.
In short, Dallas does not have a gimmee in the bunch including the road game at Jacksonville where Blake Bortles will have probably taken over and have 4-5 games under his belt. Allowing the Cowboys a split with the Giants and Skins, a win at St Louis and a home split in the games with Houston/Arizona + Jax and we have a team that is at maximum 6-10 by the eye test and possibly much worse.
Is it too late to play the Dallas Cowboy win total Under ??? All I can say is that, “You don’t pay juice when you win!”