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The suddenly resurgent Buffalo Bills travel to Foxboro to take on the New England Patriots in a key (from a wildcard standpoint) AFC East matchup. This is the rematch of the Week II 40-32 Patriots win at Buffalo. Vegas thought enough of the Bills in that game to send them out as a one-point favorite in that game but early turnovers puts Buffalo behind a 37-13 eightball and he Pats held on behind 451 Tom Brady passing yards. This time around, the Pats were installed a -9 favorite with total set at 49 1/2. Heavy Bills and under money has sent the number down to a touchdown and 48 for this Monday night feature. Weather is expected to be perfect with a crystal clear night with light winds and a game time temperature of around 38. As always, watch and win on ESPN.
Buffalo has won two straight since its debacle in London vs. the Jags and its bye week. The Bills are off impressive dominating division wins win over the Dolphins and Jets that saw the team rush for a combined 414 yards. It looks like Rex Ryan made the right choice coming out of preseason as the Bills have been good with QB Tyrod Taylor calling the shots. Taylor has just seven lifetime starts but has been productive (11 TDs, 4 Ints) when not battling injuries. Big money off-season acquisition Shady McCoy was hurt early on but has picked things up and now has 538 rushing yards at almost five yards a pop. Rookie Karlos Williams has proven an able backup with 360 yards at 6.2 ypc. with five touchdowns. Deep threat Sammy Watkins is healthy now at wide out and TE Charles Clay (40 catches) has been a valuable safety valve when Taylor is on the run. The defense is starting to play better and has always been tough (9th in the league) against the run.
The unbeaten Patriots 9-0 record is all the more amazing when you consider the injuries that the team has overcome. The offensive line has played 17 different combinations, Dion Lewis who had taken over the Shane Vareen role in the backfield went down with a season ending knee injury and this week the Pats start life without go-to slot receiver Julian Edelman (61 catches, 692 yards, 7 TDs and 37 first downs) who is out until at least the playoffs with a broken foot. Tom Brady is putting up MVP numbers completing 68% of his passes for 325 per game and 28/4 TD/Int ratio. The usual suspects like Gronk and LaGarrette Blount remain and Danny Amendola
(40 catches, 403) slip right into the slot role. In New England it’s next man up and the Pats history of keeping non-marquees names that are versatile and can play multiple positions is a big reason for their success. The defense is not spectacular but opportunistic and puts the offense in good spots. New England leads the NFL with 12 touchdown scoring drives of less than 60 yards.
New England is 27-3 straight up in this series over time and that includes a 17-9 win here last years snapping a 14-game losing streak at Foxboro. Rex Ryan has proven to be a pain in the ass from an ATS aspect when he was with the Jets but has rarely broken through against the hoodie straight up. New England is an amazing 33-1 straight up the last 34 times it has been a touchdown home favorite of seven points or more and NFL wide, division home favorites this year are just 11-21-1 ATS. The Pats are 3-0-2 ATS at home winning by 7-34-7-29-17 points respectively. The key to this game will be whether or not Taylor can avoid the turnovers that cost him in game one and what surprises Rex can formulate (Bills on some extra time off Thursday nighter with the Jets) to stop the Brady passing attack.
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