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Blog

Game Preview: Tampa Bay (6-7) at St Louis (5-8) 

by Jeff Allen of Jeff Allen Sports

           
The Tampa Bay Buccaneer playoff hopes are on life support and St Louis has already been eliminated as the Rams look to play the role of spoiler on this week’s Thursday Night Football offering. Tampa Bay is off a costly home loss to New Orleans while St Louis snapped a five-game skid with 21-14 home win over the Lions it its last. The line opened as a pick but has seen Ram money send the number to St. Louis -1. The high/low opened at 40.5 and has not moved. The game will be played in the Edward Jones Dome so weather will not be an issue. Both teams will unveil new “color rush” uniforms, Tampa Bay in red with St Louis in gold so have appropriate eye wear at the ready.

Regardless what happens with Tampa Bay this year, the Bucs have done some good things and the year would have to be considered a success. After a slow 1-3 start which had everyone throwing top draft choice Jameis Winston under the bus, Tampa Bay has shown steady improvement on both sides of the ball and Winston has slowly but surely started to come around. Winston is on pace to throw for 3500 yards and has 18 touchdowns to 11 interceptions. He’s made plays with his legs and while his 58% completion rate needs to improve, there are definite “buy” signs. Doug “The Muscle Hamster” Martin has had a big year rushing the football with 1214 yards and the wide out tandem of Mike Evans (57, 889) and Vincent Jackson (33, 526) is formidable when healthy. The defense is solid, No.11 overall and No.8 against the run, and will be test for the Ram offensive line and super rook Todd Gurley.

Though brought along slowly to start the year after major knee surgery during his senior year at Georgia, Todd Gurley has emerged as one of the elite backs in the NFL in his rookie season. Gurley’s 975 yards (5.2 ypc.) and eight touchdowns has been one of the few bright spots in what has otherwise been a dismal year in St. Louis. The Nick Foles for Sam Bradford deal has been a disaster and it appears that Jeff Fisher will go with Texas Tech journeyman Case Keenum the rest of the way. The Ram defense, especially the vaunted front seven has been disappointing and just 21st against the run. Jeff Fisher could be at the end of his tenure in St. Louis but is not yet officially a dead coach walking.

The teams have met each of the last two years with the Rams winning and covering each time. Last year, St. Louis (+4.5, 37.5) escaped with a 19-17 win in Week II. In 2013, the Rams (-3, 43) won here 23-13 in a game that saw Tampa Bay get just 14 first downs and 170 yards of total offense. The Bucs are 4-2 ATS on the road this year but just 1-4 ATS in their L5 vs. NFC West opponents. The Rams are 4-9 ATS when the line is between +-3 and just 1-5 ATS in their L6 Thursday night games. Perhaps an option here would be to look at the under with Tampa Bay 9-2 to the low in its L11 December games with the Rams 10-1 South in its L11 December games.

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