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The gauntlet that is the Pac 12 has taken its toll once again as all twelve conference teams have at least two losses and left on the outside looking in with no chance of qualifying for the FBS Final Four. This game is a rematch of the September 19th Week III game that saw Stanford walk into the Coliseum and wax the Trojans 41-31 as 9 1/2 point dogs. Tree QB Kevin Hogan arguably played the best game of his career that day as the Cardinal racked up 39:29 in time-of-possession. The game opened at Stanford -4 and there are some -4.5 out there at this writing. The total has dropped two full points from 61 to 59. Levi Stadium in Santa Clara (the 49ers home base) is a neutral field venue.
Weather is expected to be perfect with the temperature at kickoff in the low 60s.
It’s been another tumultuous year at USC but all things considered, a year that started with such hope and promise still has to be considered somewhat of a success. The season opened with 55-9 and 55-6 beat down of a couple of cupcakes before losses in two of its next three (and both at home) to Stanford and Washington. HC Steve Sarkisian was removed for alcohol related issues and the Trojans marched on to a 5-2 record with interim Clay Helton who was just made permanent on Tuesday. Gunslinger Cody Kessler (68%, 3123, 27/6) was decent but his numbers were nowhere near his monster junior year. The Trojans feature a three-pack of talented backs and WR JuJu Smith (1302, 10 TDs) is the best of this group of wideouts. The defense has fallen short all year, especially against the pass where the Trojans are ranked No.100 nationally.
Stanford has clearly been the best team in the Pac 12 but not without some speed bumps along the way. After getting ambushed at Northwestern in their opener, the Cardinal reeled off eight straight wins before coming up just short in a 38-36 decision to the ten resurgent Oregon Ducks who had been all but left for dead. That was followed by back-to-back wins in “The Game” vs. Cal and a dramatic come from behind win in the rivalry game with Notre Dame. Senior QB Kevin Hogan seems to have been at Stanford longer than Timmy Chang was at Hawaii and much like Eli Manning, you either get the very good or very bad Hogan. In his defense, Hogan was strangled his first three years by the conservative play calling of HC David Shaw who thought the only way to keep him out of trouble was running between the tackles. The emergence of Christian McCaffrey (Eddies’s kid) with 1640 yards and seven scores opened things up and took the choke collar off the offense. McCaffrey is also the leading receiver, the three leading receivers all have between 25-30 catches and no more than 474 yards. The defense is not what it has been in prior recent editions but is still strong against the run and tough in the red zone.
Perhaps the best angle to look at this game is that we have a loose and nothing to lose USC team with revenge playing a clearly better Stanford team that is off three straight (Oregon, Cal, Notre Dame) wars. The USC players are reportedly happy that the job went to Helton and the Trojans have quietly won five of six with their only loss also to streaking Oregon. The Troy offensive line has been getting healthy later in the year and could be poised for a big effort. Stanford will have to gear it up for yet another big game and it remains to be seen if the team can maintain its focus and sense of urgency with basically little more on the line than a BCS Bowl invite.
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