Written by Jeff Allen of Jeff Allen Sports
Sunday, January 18, 2015 (6:40 PM EST)
Vegas Line at this writing: New England -6.5 (53.5)
The Colts got a major wake call in their 42-7 drubbing at Dallas and Indy has been nails since in winning three including last week’s 24-13 upset of Peyton Manning and the Broncos in Denver. While Indy appeared to take a major step with that big road at Mile High, the Colts will need and even much higher level to beat a New England team that has manhandled them in all three games during the Andrew Luck era. In fact, manhandled might be a bit kind as the Pats have smoked Indy by a 144-66 (42-20, 43-22, 59-24) aggregate in those three meetings. The teams met this year at Indy on November 16th with the unheralded Jonas Gray rushing for 201 yards in the Pat’s 42-20 (+3, 58) win. In fact, New England has outrushed the Colts 478-88 in the last two meetings which includes last year’s 43-22 Pats win at Foxboro in last year’s divisional round playoff game. In the three game H2H, Luck is 70-130, 949, 1-8 while Brady is 56-90, 773, 6-3.
Indianapolis: You can pretty much count on Andrew Luck and the Colt offense to do some damage but it is the vastly improved Indy defense that makes the Colts dangerous here and the future. That said, Luck’s struggles against the Pats is well documented and it remains to be seen whether that will change here. The Pat defense showed plenty of chinks it its armor last week vs. Baltimore but with no Colt running game per se and an offensive line that has started eleven different combinations this year, Luck will likely be forced to try and do it himself through the air. Colt run stopper Arthur Jones missed the first meeting but has keyed the Indy defensive resurgence in the second half. Still, this was a stop unit that gave up 24+ points in eight games and faced Cincinnati minus their top two receivers and Peyton Manning playing through a torn quad.
New England: Tom Brady and the Pats may have overcome their biggest obstacle to getting to another Super Bowl by beating a rugged Baltimore outfit last week. The Ravens just match up well against the Pats who were forced to become the first team in playoff history to overcome two separate deficits of 14 points in the 35-31 win. While the Pats have run at will against the Colts in the past, New England ran for just 14 yards against the Ravens and didn’t even make an attempt in the second half. In last year’s playoff, LaGarrette Blount rushed for 166 yards and four TDs and could be featured again this week after being re-acquired off waivers from Pittsburgh midseason The Pats are 9-1 ATS the L3 years in games where the total opened 49.5 or higher, all ten went over the total but …. the Pats are looking to snap a 3-9 ATS funk as a playoff favorite and an 0-5 ATS monkey in their L5 AFC championship games.
Allen’s Angles
The Colts are 3-8 SU and ATS in their L11 road playoff games, mostly with Peyton Manning
The Colts are 2-5 ATS versus the AFC East the L3 years, 0-1 this year
The Over is 9-1 in the Indy’s L10, vs. the AFC East including the last seven straight
Indy is 8-3 Under in their L11 trying to avenge a same season loss
The Colts have held four of their L5 opponents to 13 points or fewer
New England is 6-2 ATS the L3 years against the AFC South, 1-0 this year
The Pats are 17-4 ATS in their L21 home games laying single digits
The Pats are 8-1 ATS in the L9 games where they’ve hosted a team with a winning record
New England is 16-8 to the Over the L3 years vs. winning records, 6-4 this year
The Pats 14 rushing yards last week were the lowest total ever by an NFL playoff winner