The Washington Redskins Over 6 wins -130
Line available at the Las Vegas Westgate SuperBook as of August 10, 2015
On face, there doesn’t appear to be much reason for optimism in the nation’s capital. The team is off horrific 3-13 and 4-12 trainwreck seasons, plays in the tough NFC East, and is saddled by a meddling owner and a quarterback that has played to about 10% of the ability that he says he has. Other than that, the Redskins do have some decent talent, a coach that could probably turn the thing around if left alone and come off one of the top drafts in the NFL.
On offense, it’s put up or shut up for Robert Griffin III who has no excuses as he enters his fourth season completely healthy and with a year under his belt in the Gruden system. The offensive line was decent and was bolstered by the best offensive lineman in the draft in Brandon Scherff who will step right in at guard. Griffin has an elite back in Alfred Morris and quality wide outs in DeSean Jackson and Pierre Garcon. The loss of Niles Paul for the season in the first exhibition game hurts but Jordan Reed is a better than adequate replacement if healthy himself.
The defense has been much maligned but has really not been that bad. Especially when you consider that they generally started behind the eightball thanks to a Griffin turnover or bad field position courtesy of an offense that didn’t move the ball. That doesn’t figure to be the case this year. The Skins were 12th against the run, 24th against the pass and 20th overall in the worst of spots. There is no reason why this stop unit to not be in the top half of the league in total offense this year.
For our purposes, the schedule is very manageable and conducive to six or more wins. Division play is tough but two of Washington’s four wins last year came against Dallas and Philadelphia and if an infinitely better Redskin team can get two division wins this year, our ticket is more than half way home. The key to the ticket will fall on the play of RG III and Washington winning at least half of the 50-50 decisions they’ll play this year.
Other than the six games against Philadelphia, Dallas and the Giants, the Skins face the AFC East, the NFC South, St Louis and Chicago. Other than the game at New England which comes off the Washington bye, most of these games are VERY winnable. The non-division home games are Miami, St Louis, Tampa Bay, New Orleans and Buffalo. On the road, the Skins catch Atlanta, the Jets, New England, Carolina and Chicago.
The non-division home games should produce no less than 3-4 wins, more likely 4-5 if Washington plays half as well as we think they will. Conceding the road games at the Patriots and Panthers, there is no reason why the Skins can’t go 2-1 or at worst 1-2 vs. Atlanta, the Jets and Chicago. That would be six wins excluding division play. With a good start and no injuries, a .500 season for Washington is very possible. Play the Over.