Jeff Allen Game Preview: Hofstra at William and Mary
World Champion Handicapper Jeff Allen is on a 12-4 run college basketball focusing primarily on the smaller schools and staying
away from the power conferences. Tonight, Allen takes a look at an important tilt from the Colonial with 16-8 (8-4) Hofstra traveling to Williamsburg, Virginia to face the 17-6 (9-3) Tribe of William and Mary. Both teams are currently looking up at conference leader UNC-Wilmington so a win here would be important in keeping pace and if nothing else, tournament seeding. The early send out had Bill and Mary at -4.5 with the total set at 154. At this writing, the number has settled on William and Mary -3 with the over/under 154 1/2.
Hofstra is very good at this level but not very deep with nearly all of it’s scoring and all of it’s minutes coming from the starting five.
Juan’ya Green (17.9, 4.4, 6.8) is the Pride’s best player. He’s a Niagra transfer that has never averaged less than 16.5 ppg. in his four years as a starter. Brian Bernardi (13.2) is the third guard and an SMU transfer so you know he has some talent. Roskas Guystas (12.8, 11.8) is 6’9 and 260 and the Pride’s only real player in the paint.
William and Mary uses a solid seven man rotation with nine players seeing action in just about every game. Omar Prewitt is the 6’7′ swing man who is the Tribe’s first scoring option at 17.3 per. Daniel Dixon is a big (6’6″) finesse guard that is a three-point specialist and cashing at better than 43% from behind the arc. Terry Tarpey is just 6’5″ but is a four year starter and vet off 116 games. He’s does the majority of the work on the glass pulling down just under eight rebounds per game.
Several factors have us looking at homestanding William and Mary … including home court, depth, size, spot and same year revenge. The teams met January 24th at Hofstra and the Tribe got smoked 91-63 in a game that they led by double-digits just before the half. In that game, Hofstra finished 15-37 from downtown and averaged almost 1.5 points-per-possession in the second half. Hofstra has lost their last four trips to this venue but … Colonial home faves of five points or less are just 5-10 ATS this year. Hofstra is off a tough overtime road loss at James Madison, W&M off 90-64 blowout home win over Delaware. William and Mary has averaged better than 87 ppg over its last four win and in the end, we’re thinking the Tribe will wear down a game but outmanned Hofstra club and come away with a ten-point win.