JEFF ALLEN GAME PREVIEW: OKLAHOMA CITY at DALLAS GAME III
In what has pretty much been the only game to upset the apple cart to this point of the NBA playoffs, Dallas (+14, +1000 ML)
went into the Thunderdome on Monday and shocked the hosts by coming away with an 85-84 road win. Almost as surprising
as the win was the fact that just 48 hour before, OKC had spanked the Mavs 108-70, the worst playoff loss in Dallas franchise
history. In the Monday game, it was an utter brickfest for the home team as Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook combined
on a miserable 15-55 shooting night. In fact, the Durantula’s 26 misses from the floor were the most ever in the modern playoff
era. While there has been minor fluctuation in the line, the number at this writing is exactly the same as the send out, OKC -8.5
with the total set on 197 1/2.
Oklahoma City is clearly the better team in the series and will almost assuredly win this series in five or six games but Dallas
we do bet games against the spread and the Mavericks, unlike the Houston Rockets, have proven that they will not go down
without a fight. In fact, the Mavs have a big edge in coaching with Rick Carlisle and the best “leader” on the floor in Dirk Nowitzki
who both had Dallas playing hard even down 30 late in Game One. From the pregame warmup when scrub Charlie Villaneuva
walked through the middle of Thunder dancing ritual, a message was sent, Dallas was here to play. PG Raymond Felton who
is having a miserable year played like a man possessed with 21 points and 11 rebounds. The Mavs have injury concerns with
Dirk (knee bruise but upgraded to probable), sparkplug J.J. Barea (questionable, groin) and starter and second leading scorer
Deron Williams (questionable, sports hernia) but with three days between games, you would expect all three will be ready to go.
On face, you would expect Oklahoma City to come out roaring and put a beating the outgunned and hurting Mavs. That won’t be
as easy as it sounds but in the end, as poorly as OKC played on Monday, it was up seven with six minutes to play. The Thunder
have won five of six in the series but Dallas is 7-5 ATS in the L12 series games, have won eight of 11 overall and are 5-2 in their
L7 as a dog. Keep in mind that you will be laying near double-digits with a team that lost five of it’s final six road games down the
stretch. Nine of the L11 Maverick games have done under the total and the first two games in this series (178, 169) have not come
close. Vegas has adjusted the total a full 12 points in two games but if the Mavs can withstand the opening Thunder onslaught and
dictate the pace, the under just might be the best option yet again.