JEFF ALLEN NFL DIVISION PREVIEW: AFC WEST
AFC West: Odds to win the division and season win totals current as of August 5, 2016 at the Westgate Superbook
Kansas City Chiefs 8/5. 9.5 Over -135/Under +115
Last year, the Chiefs started the season at 1-5 before running off 10 straight wins and crushing the Texans in the
playoffs. The big run was done without RB Jamaal Charles, one of the top all purpose back in the league who was
lost to a knee injury early on. This year they’ll be without their best defensive player in Justin Houston (knee) who has
averaged double-digit sacks in his time in. KC. OC Doug Pederson has left for Philly so it will be up to Brad Childress
and Matt Nagy to continue to evolve an improving passing game.
Game manager supreme Alex Smith returns at quarterback and a healthy year with him doing what he does is going
to make the Chiefs formidable once again. Remember that this team has won 32 games the last three years with the
Reid/Smith combo and the team is loaded again after some savvy free agent signings and another rock solid draft.
If Kansas City can come up with another wide receiver that could come up with 50 catches, 700 yards and a couple of
scores, Kansas City would be co-favored with New England and Pittsburgh to win the AFC.
Recommendations: If we were the Chiefs, we would make this an all in year. The schedule is conducive to an monster
year and we have Kansas City favored in every game but at Pittsburgh and at Carolina. They play at Oakland off their bye
and while the Raiders figure to be improved, have a much tough fron half than Kansas City and are still a year away.
Denver got a “perfect storm” in December and won in the playoffs with defense. We have the Chiefs at 12/13 wins and
a top play to win this division at a very attractive price.
Oakland 5/2, 8.5 Over/Under both -110
The Oakland Raiders are this year’s “wildcard” in the NFL. Despite going 4-12, 3-13 and 7-9 the last three years, Oakland
has done everything right. The Silver and Black now has all it’s dead money off the books, a players head coach cut out of
the same Raider fabric from years ago and has drafted well enough to elevate the team to the league top ten in terms of
overall talent. They have a great young quarterback in Derek Carr with a fast improving offensive line and skill people with
unlimited potential like Amari Cooper. The defense features possible the best young defensive pass rusher in the league
in Khahlil Mack and this year free agent acquisition from Seattle Bruce Irvin.
The Raiders season will in large part depend on their start. The schedule makers did the team no favors with three of
the teams first four games on the road. Five of their first eight games are on the road with three trips to the Eastern time
zone. The Raiders finish tough as well with games at Kansas City, at San Diego, home to the Colts and at Denver. Carr
will decide the rest. If he is able to avoid the turnovers and bad decisions that plagued him in his first two years, the Raiders
will be a hand full. If Carr needs another year on the learning curve, Oakland will be a factor but might not be ready to sneak
into the playoffs for the first time since 2003.
Recommendations:
Denver 9/4, 9.5 Over +130/Under -150
Denver starts play as the defending Super Bowl champions, historically not a great position to be in. Since 1980
just three teams have repeated as champs and overall play, especially against the number seems to be difficult to
repeat. Remember that with two weeks left in last’s year’s schedule, the Broncos were not a lock to even make the
playoffs but light’s out defense and turnover free game management by Peyton Manning got the Orange Crush to
the party which they eventually won.
It will be an almost completely different Bronco team this year starting at quarterback where it will likely be Mark
Sanchez or Trevor Siemian calling the shots. Denver drafted it’s QB of the future in Paxton Lynch but if the rook out
of Memphis does see the field this year it would likely be because Denver took some bad losses early and that John
Elway had seen enough to give up on the season. Von Miller is fat and happy with his new deal and ready to anchor
the defense by tackling machine Danny Trevathan and DE Malik Jackson have flown the coop so down’t expect this
year’s Orange Crush to come anywhere near the league leading 52 sacks it registered last year.
Recommendations: Everything fell right for Denver last year and we just don’t see lightning striking twice. The schedule
that starts with Carolina, Indianapolis, at Cincinnati and at a very underrated Tampa Bay could have the Broncos 0-3 or
1-3 right off the git go. Their final three games are killer hosting New England, at Kansas City and hosting Oakland with
the Raiders (both teams) likely to need the game. We’re not willing to back the Broncos in a division where we project
them to be third or in wins where we agree with the early money that now has the Under 9.5 wins at a pricey 50 cents.
San Diego 6/1, 7 Over -140/Under -120
The Chargers are off a horrendous 4-12 year and in all honesty, Mike McCoy is fortunate to be back for a fourth
year. Not only are the Bolts off their worst year since 2003, they gave the impression of having quit the second
half … not a good thing. There was also rumblings of dissension in the locker room, fan unrest due to what was
the team’s imminent departure to Los Angeles after all new stadium proposals were shot down and several key
injuries pretty much guaranteed the Chargers a spot in the AFC West basement.
The Chargers did a nice job of upgrading their talent in the off season and McCoy has reunited Philip Rivers with
new OC Ken Whisenhunt. Rivers had his best season as a pro with Whisenhunt calling the shots in 2013. Last
year’s top draft pick RB Melvin Gordon should be recovered from micro-fracture surgery and figures to improve the
offense greatly. It’s hard to believe that the organization is playing chicken wit this year’s top pick, DL Joey Bosa
from Ohio State. Bosa is yet to be signed due to contract language and at this point has only missed about 10 days
of valuable time. Expect him in this week.
Recommendations: San Diego figures to be improved but by how much in the very tough AFC West remains to be
seen. The Bolts were 0-6 straight up in division last year and could repeat this year. The team was just 1-7 on the
road last year (although they’ve been a solid road dog for years) and might very well go 1-7 with suitcase this year.
We have San Diego at least a couple of years away from contending for a division title and think that seven wins
could be a bit ambitious. The Under at just 20 cents looks to present pretty good value.