JEFF ALLEN: WHEN IN DOUBT … TAKE THE DOG
Let’s make that, in early conference tournament play … TAKE THE DOG. You read about and heard on sports radio ad nauseam how this is the most wide open college basketball season in memory and that there are probably 30 teams that could make the Final Four and 10-12 with a legitimate chance to win. In our experience that has not been the case and that generally the cream rises to the top but after two wild days of conference tournament play in the non-power conferences, taking the points has been the way to go.
In fact, if you haven’t been playing the dogs you’ve probably seen your bankroll take a significant hit. On Tuesday, the dogs went 3-2 for the day in what basically amounted to play-in games between bad teams. On Wednesday, the dogs were really barking at 8-2 with four straight up wins including Hartford (+24), a 68-59 winner over three-time defending America East tournament champion Albany. On Thursday, the teams getting points in tournament play went 14-6 with and astounding eight straight up wins. That’s a three day total of
25-10 for the dogs with 13 straight up wins.
Granted this is minor tournament action. The No.1 seeds that have already fallen to the wayside like Northern Florida and Bucknell, would have likely had Tuesday dates in Dayton (had they won) or would have been one and done tune ups for the Michigan State’s of the world. That said there have been a several unlikely teams like Stetson that are running through their respective tournaments. The now 12-21 Hatters (DeLand, Florida) have been nothing short of amazing, flying to New Jersey and spanking NJIT 82-67 (+11) and then pummeling Lipscomb 96-75 (+6) in Nashville less than 48 hours later. Stetson was a team that has won just four road games all year and in a travel spot that would have been a concern to any ranked team.
There are many reasons for looking at dogs in these spots. These teams have absolutely nothing to lose and can play hard and loose knowing that this might very well be the final games of the seasons and even college careers. Aside from a few bubble teams from power conferences looking to pad their resumes, none of the better teams in a matchup give a flip about winning by margin or gaining style points. In tournament action, the legendary Jim Valvano said it best, “just win and advance”. Stonybrook (24-6) accomplished the exact same
thing beating Baltimore County (7-24) 86-76 (-18.5 ) in a game that that was 73-70 late as they would have winning by 30. Last night, Rider (-5) and up nine with less that a minute, is life and death to win 60-57. They won. It happens time after time after time.
You get the idea. When handicapping games between marginal teams in with no clear cut edge falling either way, WHEN IN DOUBT, PASS OR TAKE THE DOG.