Kentucky Derby winner American Pharoah takes on seven rival three-year-old colts in Saturday’s 140th running of the Preakness Stakes, the second jewel of Thoroughbred racing’s Triple Crown. Raced at Pimlico Race Course in Baltimore at a distance of 1 mile and 3/16, the Preakness is 1/16th of a mile shorter than the Kentucky Derby. After drawing outside in the Derby (No.18), “The Pharoah” will break from the disadvantageous (No.1) rail in the Preakness. Just two horses have won the Preakness from the inside over the past 54 years,Carry Back in 1961 and Tabasco Cat in 1994. American Pharoah has been installed the morning line 4/5 favorite.
We’ll start our preview with the pretenders and then the contenders. The pretenders are horses that we’ll eliminate immediately having determined by our handicapping to have no chance to winning and very little chance of hitting the board. The Kentucky Derby has a way of thinning the herd considerably and today we’ll have eight starters as opposed to the 18 that went to post in Louisville.
The first horse to be eliminated will be No.4, Danzig Moon. The Mark Casse trainee encountered all kinds of traffic problems in the Derby but still had little run late, passing dead pieces to finish fifth. No.5, Tale of Verve didn’t make enough money to qualify for Kentucky and at 1-6 lifetime, doesn’t belong here either. No.6 Bodhisattava is a Maryland bred colt that won the Tesio on this track on Derby Day. Tesio winners traditionally take a shot in the Preakness and very few have ever done well. No.7 Divining Rod is off a stakes win at Keeneland and skipped the Derby to race here. He’s owned by the same people that owned Barbaro who won the 2006 Kentucky Derby and then tragically broke down in this race two weeks later. A nice story but little else.
That leaves us with four horses left … American Pharoah, Firing Line, Dortmund and Mr Z. Allen’s selections in the 2015 Preakness Stakes are …
Win
No.8 Firing Line: The Derby runner up leaves from the far outside and will have the top if that’s the way he wants to go. Remember that Gary Stevens bottomed out the field going wire-to-wire with Oxbow in 2103 and that could be a distinct possibility here. Firing Line was ultra-impressive in pressuring Dortmund throughout the Derby, putting that one away, and never caving to American Pharoah who benefited from the perfect trip. This time they’ll have to catch him.
Place
No.1 American Pharoah: This crops “super horse” was excellently ridden to an easy win in the Derby by Victor Espinoza who won the Derby and this race last year on California Chrome. Working out a perfect trip from the inside here will be easier said than done from the inside post. The perfect scenario would be for American Pharoah to bide his time while Dortmund and Firing Line trade punches at the front. Regardless of how the race unfolds, the three-year-old son of Pioneer of the Nile will have to be looking the leaders in the eye turning for home and doing some of the heavy lifting himself.
Show
No.2 Dortmund: Should enjoy the shorter distance here but never figures to see the lead. Dortmund was out on an easy lead in the Derby before succumbing to the top two but was still the best of the rest. The loss was his first in seven career starts. May not have the chutzpah
to beat these.
Best of the rest
No.3 Mr Z: This horse ran with Dortmund and Firing line in the spring and was in the mix in both of his Derby preps. He was bought last week by iconic Calumet Farms farms but stays with Lucas, not bad connections. Mr. Z had no chance to race in the Derby after getting buried in traffic. The horse was brave in the Lewis Stakes against Dortmund and the shorter distance and field makes him a player.
Allen’s top four selections in the Kentucky Derby finished 4-3-1-2 with a $1 box in the Superfecta paying $634!