Jeff Allen’s AFC Championship Preview: New England at Denver
This one figures to be an instant classic as future first ballot Hall of Famers Tom Brady and Peyton Manning meet
for the fifth time and probably last time with a trip to the Super Bowl on the line. Peyton Manning’s playoff history of
one and dones is well documented. Tom Brady has a lifetime playoff record of 0-2 in Denver. Something has to give
as the two top seeds in the AFC square off at Mile High Stadium. The game opened with a line of New England -3
with most houses also tacking on (.15, .20) extra vig. The game is not likely to come off three. The total has seen a
slight move to the over, opening at 44 and at this writing is currently 44 1/2. The game time temperature for the 3:00
PM EST kick is expected to be in the mid-40s. There is a 60% chance of scattered showers on Sunday with negligible
wind. Watch and win on CBS.
The 13-4 Patriots have had a remarkable season considering the injuries they’ve endured through the year. It’s a true
testament to what a great organization this is and this could arguably be Bill Belechick’s best coaching job ever. Brady
overcame all the “deflategate” distractions to post another (64%, 4770, 36/7) MVP type year. Veteran retread Steven
Jackson (16-50) is all that’s left after the year’s attrition at running back. Gronk (72, 1176, 11 TDs) is the best tight end in
football and possibly ever. Julian Edelman might just be the most important piece of the Pat offense from his slot wide
out. Edelman returned from injury to have 10 catches for 100 yards against the Chiefs and keeps the chains moving.
The New England defense has been better than expected finishing No.9 overall and is especially staunch against the
run.
The 13-4 Broncos have gotten here on defense, their best since the Orange Crush days of the 70’s. No.3 against the run,
No.1 vs. the pass and No.1 overall, the Bronco defense is top five in the league in every defensive metric. This stop unit
had six players with 60+ tackles. The secondary had just 14 intereceptions but that could be in large part because the
front seven accounted for a a whopping 52 sacks led by Von Miller’s 11. Peyton Manning’s time is winding down and 2015
saw home miss most of the second half after throwing 17 picks in nine games to start the year. Still, he sparked the offense
in the second half of the Broncos’ season finale must win vs. San Diego and was serviceable against Pittsburgh and
probably Denver’s best chance to win here. Ronnie Hillman (863 yards) and C.J. Anderson (720) are a formidible back field
if the Broncos can establish the run. Demaryus Thomas (1304) and Emmanuel Sanders (11-5) are proven commodities
if Manning can get them the ball.
This is the 16th and likely final meeting between Brady and Manning. Brady leads the series 11-5 and is 3-1 since Peyton took
his talents to Denver. The teams met this year on this field in a driving rain on November 29th with Denver winning 30-24 in
overtime. Manning did not play because of foot problems and Brady was without wide outs Edelman and Amendola. The Pats
had the game well in hand before a rediculous muffed punt in the third quarter turned things Denver’s way. It marked the debut
of Brock Osweiler who likely be Manning’s replacement in Denver and the unfortunate scapegoat of the Broncos sputtering
offense down the stretch. Belechick generally looks to take away his opponents strongest advantage which in this case could
be the Denver running game. In the end, this game could be decided on whether or not the Broncos can run the football and
whether or not Peyton Manning can still make the throws to get the job done if they cant.