JEFF ALLEN’S BELMONT STAKES PREVIEW
The third and final leg of this year’s thoroughbred racing Triple Crown takes place today at Belmont Park in Elmont,
New York. The race was inaugurated in 1867 and is the longest race in the Triple Crown series. It is often referred
to as “The Test of Champions” and the winner is covered in a blanket of white carnations. The fastest time in the race
was recorded by the 1973 winner, Secretariat. Weather at post time should be close to perfect with the temperature
expected to be around 76 with 65% humidity. There is zero chance of precipitation and the track is expected to be
lightning fast.
This year’s Triple Crown races have gone pretty much as scripted with few surprises. In the Kentucky Derby, Nyquist
was much the best coming into the race and he won easily. In the deluge that was The Preakness, Exaggerator was
the best “off track” horse coming in and he won easily with a perfect ride after Nyquist was used hard on the front end
of an early speed duel. Nyquist is taking the Belmont off and Exaggerator doesn’t appear to be scaring anyone off as
13 horses will go to post.
In our eyes, this comes down to four horses with a chance to hit the board and these four will include our projected
winner along with the horses that we’ll use in our exotics. For current odds directly from Belmont, click the link below.
http://www.belmontstakes.com/belmont-live-odds.aspx
Win: No.11 Exaggerator: There is no real brain surgery here with the Preakness Winner the even money favorite. This
is a nice horse … not a superstar by any means but a very nice stakes horse. He has a couple of moves and while his
M.O. is to work out a trip or come from behind, he also has the tactical speed to be well placed and that is what we expect
here. Looking for Exaggerator to drom in behind the early speed for his outside post, stalk at six to eight lengths behind
until the three quarters and then drawing away to a two or three length win with clear sailing in the stretch. The favorite
has won just three times in the last 20 years but Exaggerator is the best here.
Place: No.3 Cherry Wine: You gotta love it when you see people making excuses of why a horse raced well and won or
got a big piece of his last race. Cherry Wine is that horse here off his second place finish in the Preakness. He’s not that
fast, his rating and split times are not good …. blah blah blah. The horse comes from good connections and should be
a factor throughout.
Show: No.5 Stradavari: Showed that he was not a one-trick pony and could in fact be rated as he left a bit in the Preakness
to grab a good spotĀ and was game down the stretch to hit the board. This horse is very lightly raced and while be belongs,
he’ll need the planets to align to get the win.
With: No.12 Broady’s Cause: This horse had a nightmare trip in the Kentucky Derby and never really had a chance to
race. He’s a stone cold closer who has had five week’s off to regroup and get some swagger back. Look for jock Luis
Saez to keep him out of trouble and then come fling late to get a piece of the money.
Betting
Win: No.11 Exaggerator
Exotics (Exactas, Trifectas and Superfectas): 11- (3-5-12)