Vegas Line at this writing: New England -1 (47.5)
The conference playoff smoke has cleared and the teams left standing turned out to be the best teams in the NFL regular season as the 14-4 New England Patriots square off with the 14-4 Seattle Seahawks in a battle of conference top seeds. Seattle looks to become the seventh team in NFL history to win B2B NFL championships, the last being New England when the Pats turned the trick in 2003-2004. Bill Belichick makes his sixth Super Bowl appearance tying him with Don Shula. A win, Belichick’s fourth, would tie him with Chuck Noll. Pete Carroll becomes the fourth head coach to face his former team, the other three (Weeb Ewbank, John Gruden and Dan Reeves) going 2-1 straight up and versus the points. Carroll would also become the first football head coach with multiple college championships and multiple NFL championships. This is Tom Brady’s sixth Super Bowl start which breaks a tie with John Elway. A win would give Brady four, tying him with Joe Montana and Terry Bradshaw. Russell Wilson becomes the youngest quarterback to start two Super Bowls and has never lost a game (10-0 SU, 8-2 ATS) versus a quarterback that has won a Super Bowl, 3-0 vs. Rodgers, 2-0 vs. Manning and 1-0 vs. Brady.
The Patriots and Seahawks have met once in the Brady/Wilson era, a 24-23 Seattle (+4, 42.5) win in Seattle during Russell Wilson’s rookie year. This game was pretty much Russell Wilson’s break out game as the rookie out of Wisconsin drove the Hawks to 14 points in the final 7:31 for the win, connecting with Sidney Rice on a 46-yarder with 1:18 left for the win. Wilson finished the game 16/27, 293, 3-0. Marshawn Lynch was held to 41 yards on 15 carries. The Pats won the battles of first downs (26-17), plays (85-55) and yardage (475-368) but came up short on the scoreboard thanks to scoring just one touchdown in six drives into the Seattle red zone. Tom Brady had a big day going 36-58, 395, 2-2 but took a costly sack (his lone sack of the day) on the Pat’s final drive.
Team Matchups:
No.11 Patriot offense vs. No.1 Seahawk defense
No. 13 Patriot defense vs, No.9 Seahawk defense
No.3 Patriot special teams vs. No.24 Seahawk special teams
New England : To get to this point, you obviously have to be playing well. The Pats are 12-2 in their last 14 games. One loss was a 26-21 decision at Green Bay and the other, a final week loss at Buffalo that saw all the starters sit midway through the second quarter. The Pats were not especially sharp in their playoff win over the Ravens but you cannot disregard the fact that this team came from 14 points down twice including the second half. The Pats were razor sharp in blowing out Indy in the AFC championship game. FlateGate or not, as one Colt so aptly put it, “They would have beaten us by four touchdowns if we had been playing with soap on a rope.”
Patriot’s Keys to Victory: In our opinion, this is a true legacy game for Tom Brady who is just 10-8 in the playoffs since his last Super Bowl win. The Patriots need to get out to a fast start and establish the run early to open the Pat short pass game where New England enjoys a distinct matchup edge with Gronk, their slot receivers and the very underrated Brandon LaFell. On defense, the Pats need corners Ravis and Browner to win their individual battles with Baldwin and Kearse allowing the Pats to concentrate stopping the run and maintaining contain of Russell Wilson.
Seattle: The Seahawks flipped the switch after a 3-3 start winning 11 of their final 12 games, the last eight in dominating
fashion. Over the last eight games, the Hawk defense has allowed just 78 points, exactly half of those coming in the
last two playoff games. There is a very real chink in the Seattle defensive armor, stopping the run. The Seattle’s four
losses, their opponents rushed for an average of 140 yards on 35 carries. In the Seahawks 14 wins, their opponents
averaged 70 yards on just 22 carries. Wilson has only thrown for 300 yards five times on the year but can beat you
with his legs. The perceived advantage for the Pats may not be all that much as Seattle stole the Green Bay game with
two huge (fake FG, onside kick) special team plays. Kicker Steven Hauschka has never (12/12) missed a post-season
kick.
Seahawk’s Keys to Victory: After allowing 81.3 yards per game on the road during the regular season, the Panthers and Packers each managed to rush for better than 130 yards at 4.5 per during the playoffs. Seattle will need to stop the Patriot ground game regardless of the back New England decides to feature. Russell Wilson will have to be near flawless and not turn the ball over like last week as the Patriot’s will undoubtedly be better closers than the Packers. Seattle would also be well served to get out to an early lead and turn the game over to Marshawn Lynch and an offensive line that can do some business against a middle of the road Patriot defense. Winning time of possession will also keep a more potent New England offense off the field and keep a somewhat dinged Seattle defense fresh.
Allen’s Angles and Bullets
Las Vegas Sports Books have made money in 22 of the L24 Super Bowls
The dog is 10-3 over the L13 Super Bowls, 6-1 L7
Seattle is 17-3 straight up in their L20 games getting points.
The Pats are 4-11 ATS in their L15 playoff games
Teams that scored 40+ points in the playoffs, are 4-23 ATS in the follow up
Russell Wilson is 10-0 SU (8-2 ATS) in his short career vs. Super Bowl winning QBs
Seattle has outscored their opposition 87-13 in the 4th quarter of their current eight game win streak
The Over is 19-9 in the L28 Super Bowls
Favorites of pick to -3 are 3-8 ATS in the Super Bowl
23 of the 48 previous Super Bowls were decided by 14 points or more
The Over is 18-10 when the Super Bowl is played on grass like this one is
Russel Wilson rushing stats this year: 896 (7.0), 7 Touchdowns, no fumbles lost
Tom Brady rushing stats this year: 70 (1.6), 1 Touchdown, 3 fumbles lost
Tom Brady post season stats: 28 starts, 19 wins, 7017 passing yards, 49 TDs, 88.5 QBR
Tom Brads Super Bowl stats: 3-2 record, 1277 yards, 9-2 TD/Int, 93.8 QBR
17 of 81 “drafted” players on the Super Bowl active rosters were taken in the second round
40 of the 81 “drafted players on the Super Bowl active rosters were taken in the last four rounds
What are the best Super Bowl “squares” ???
As you would imagine …. the magic numbers
No.1: 7-0, 0-7 20 times hit, 10.4%
No.2 3-0, 0-3 17 times hit, 8.9%
No.3 7-3, 3-7 14 times hit, 7.3%
N0.4 0-0, 0-0 10 times hit, 6.8%
Through first 48 Super Bowls