JEFF ALLEN’S PREAKNESS PREVIEW
Fresh off our Kentucky Derby winner with Nyquist, we take a look at Saturday’s second jewel of horse racing’s
Triple Crown, the 141st running on the Preakness State at Pimlico Race Course in Baltimore, Maryland. As is
usually the case, the field has been whittled down from 20 in the Derby to just 11 entries in the Preakness. Just
Just three horses that ran in the Derby return plus eight new faces looking to take their shot against the unbeaten
Nyquist. It is expected to rain all day in Baltimore with a 90% chance of precipitation, temperatures in the 60’s and
a wind of 10-13 mph. We view this as a three horse race so we’ll go through the “paperwork” first.
The Preakness is 1/16th of a mile SHORTER than the Kentucky Derby and is contested at 1 3/16s of a mile. A
maximum of 14 horses are allowed to race and post position seems to be of little consequence. In fact, over the
last 15 years, there has been a winner from every post but the two with the six and seven winning twice. Last
year, American Pharoah won from the rail (No.1) which most times is not the place you want to be in thoroughbred
racing. Closers do not do well in the race and if you are not withing a length and a half coming out of the final turn,
you have little or no chance.
A few words about that hoses that WILL NOT win the Preakness. Cherry Wine will have a good view of them all and
could possibly be the caboose, no chance. Awsome Speed isn’t awsome and he isn’t fast. Get’s a free roll here for
winning the Tessio here a couple of week’s ago. There’s a reason he was in the Tessio. Lani is the third holdover
from the Derby, broke poorly and finished back. Horses that raced early in the Emirates have never done well in the
Derby. He won’t do well here. Collected getting lots of love because of Baffert/Castellano connections. Baffert’s bench
horse doesn’t belong here. Laoban is a maiden which means he’s never won, an automatic throw out. Abiding Star
has won five straight against New York police horses. Will be near the front early and will quit. Fellowship could be the
best of the also rans if he can work out a trip and have clear sailing in the stretch. Stradavari has three races, demolishing
allowance horses in last two. Too green for these.
There is going to be no betting a little to make a lot in this race so the key will be accuracy and making the most while
risking the least.
Win: No.3 Nyquist: The horse is eight for eight and still gets little to no respect. He won the Kentucky Derby easily and
Exaggerator wouldn’t have caught hm if they went around Churchill Downs another three times. He’s shown that he can
deal with wet conditioned based on his blowout win in the Florida Derby. Instant replay … stalk the pace, move in the turn
and much the best coming home.
Place: No.2 Uncle Lino: Love this horse who won his maiden race in the slop and blew away a field in the California
Chrome with a slick Beyer figure in his latest. His mare is a half sister to Classics winner Shackleford who I personally
made a ton on a couple of years ago. This horse always races hard and looks to have a very bright future.
Show: No.5 Exaggerator: This is a very good colt that is fast, does absolutely nothing wrong but has the bad fortune of
being in the same crop as Nyquist. Like Frosted last year, he’ll go down in the annals of horse racing as a nice colt that
chased Nyquist around second best. Not a bad legacy and it pays very very well.
How to bet the Preakness
Win: Nyquist
Cold Exactas: 3-2, 3-5
Trifecta and Superfectas: 3-(2-5-10)