JEFF ALLEN’S STONE COLD KENTUCKY DERBY SUPERFECTA
Last year we took a shot at beating what turned out to be a real superstar in American Pharoah with a very good horse named Frosted. Lesson learned. Frosted raced well and went on to win two million dollar races later in the year but was clearly several notches behind American Pharoah. Last year’s Kentucky Derby turned out to be a monster going on to win the first Triple Crown since 1978 and then going on to crush older horses in the Breeders Cup Classic.
While we don’t know if we have back-to-back Triple Crown winners like we did in 1977-78 with Seattle Slew and Affirmed, we do see two horses that are pretty much the class of this very good crop of three-year-olds and they are Nyquist and Mohaymen. Now many might say that the Nyquist/Mohaymen issue was settled in the Florida Derby when Nyquist blew away Mohaymen in that East/West battle of the unbeatens but we think we can make a case for Junior Alvarado ridden horse to bounce back with a much truer effort here.
There are several things to keep in mind here in the Kentucky Derby. Firstly, the race is expected to be run in almost perfect conditions. The forecast is for a warm sunny day with no chance of precipitation unlike many of the Derby preps in April that were run in rainy conditions on heavy if not off tracks. There is no real speed in this race in a field that is top heavy with grinders and stone cold closers. You don’t win this race by “swooping” the field or “coming from the clouds” with one big stretch run. You need be well positioned at the eighth pole and have a clear run to the finish, preferably without having to check and split horse or go around traffic and dead pieces.
So without further adieu, we present World Champion Handicapper Jeff Allen’s stone cold superfecta. For those of you that primarily bet sports and just look at the horses during the Triple Crown and Breeders Cup seasons, a superfecta is a horse bet where you must pick the first four horses in the EXACT order of finish. You can bet superfectas for as little as .10 cents and for as much as you want. If you are fortunate enough to catch some longshots in your number, you could be holding a lottery ticket as there have been some bombs hit in the past. At the very least you have the opportunity to bet a little to potentially make a lot. Lets have some fun and make some money!
Finishing Fourth: No.11 Exaggerator/Kent Desormeaux – This is the best of the closers with an interesting story line in that the horse is trained by Desormeaux’s brother Keith. This horse is the best of the “stone cold” closers and what separates his from the others is that he’s capable of making a move during the race and position himself well to use his big run at the end. Kent Desormeaux has won three prior Kentucky Derbies and if he can work out a trip, will be very dangerous here.
Finishing Third: No.20 Danzing Candy/Mike Smith – This horse is the only real speed in the race. Horses like this from the second gate are generally automatic throw outs but this horse has quick feet, a supersonic burst and will have the opportunity to cross over and get the top in the first five steps out of the gate. Detractors say that he is “unrateable” but with veteran Mike Smith in the irons, the pace will be honest. He might not be able to bottom out the field like Palace Malice did in the Preakness several years ago but let this horse get to the three-quarters in 1:10 and piece, this horse will have a big chance to hit the board at a very healthy price.
Finishing Second: No.14 Mohaymen/Alvarado – This horse was unbeaten and the favorite in his showdown with Nyquist on April 2nd in Florida. Excuses are for losers but this horse had plenty in suffering the first loss of his career in his last.. If you have been around the business, you know that horses are just flesh and blood like we are and sometimes they just don’t fire. Wasn’t American Pharoah beaten at Saratoga last August ??? It rained all day at the Florida Derby, the track was heavy and Mohaymen was forced wide and the start and raced three wide the entire way before having his mild run. In the horse racing industry, it is said that horses “bounce”. That basically means that a horse is likely to re-gress of a big effort and improve off a poor effort. We’re looking for Mohaymen to improve greatly here and possible win.
The Winner is: No.13 Nyquist/Mario Gutierrez – This horse has never been beaten and has been dominant in most of his starts. He was the champion two-year-old and won last year’s Breeders Cup Juvenile, also from post No.13. Nyquist is a big strapping son of Uncle Mo and can race any way you want him. His perfect scenario is exactly what he figure to see here. Nyquist has excellent tactical speed and figures to drop in somewhere just behind the pacesetters … stalking before coming after the leaders somewhere in the turn for home. This is where Nyquist and Mohaymen will go at it head-to-head with better horse first across the wire.
Allen’s Kentucky Derby Recommendations …
Bet No.13 Nyquist across the board … Win, Place and Show
Exacta, Trifecta and Superfecta Boxes: 11-13-14-20
Horses that could also his the board at a price: No.3 Creator, No.18 Majesto, No.19 Broady’s Cause