The start of baseball is just around the corner and while having a game plan for the entire season makes sense, coming up with a wagering strategy that gets you through April is a nice way to strengthen up the ground in what can often be a turbulent time of year.
With so many games to choose from, one approach is to outline a couple of betting angles with a proven history of success and start each day/week by running through your list to identify scheduling setups and solid matchups. Here are a few tips to help you stay ahead of the pack as we make our way through the first part of the season.
TIE GOES TO THE HITTER
One of the first things to consider when going into this MLB season is that the recent trend for April games is favoring the “Over”. In fact, each of the past two seasons, April was the highest OVER-percentage full month of the entire year. The combined record for April games in 2013-14 was 421 overs and 360 unders, a hit-rate of 54-percent to the high side. It’s not an exorbitant figure by any means but when you compare it to the overall April record from the previous 10 years, when over bettors were batting just . 499, it shows that hitters are coming into the season more prepared these days and oddsmakers have yet to make appropriate adjustments.
HOME COMING
A prime spot for catching home teams who are ready for an offensive show is in first game off a road trip. We’ve already indicated that April = Offense and when the home side with a winning record is favored by -120 or more and the total is greater than O/U 7.5, the “Over” has cashed at rate of 64-percent since 2004.
April road dogs are just as eager to ruin this party as the home team is to grab another win and with an average of 8.8 plays per season, this angle has produced a profit in eight of the past 11 years. Six plays in 2014 went 5-1 to the over and the final scores finished more than three runs above the posted total.
TOP GUNS
Since 2005, the top five home teams off an extended trip (nine-plus games) are the Angels (21-9), Twins (18-8), Pirates (15-7), Yankees (18-9) and Red Sox (20-10) but strong win-loss records for the road weary don’t always translate into high scoring games. If you’re looking for potentially strong, early season Over/Under candidates, circle these four dates followed by each team’s record and their latest trend:
1. Florida Marlins vs. Washington Nationals, April 24 – Marlins = 20-8-3 O/U (71-percent)… Current Streak = 12-1-1 O/U
2. Oakland A’s vs. Houston Astros, April 24 – Athletics = 18-9-1 O/U (67-percent)… Current Streak = 10-4 O/U
3. Detroit Tigers vs. Kansas City Royals, May 8 – Tigers = 20-10-1 O/U (67-percent)… Current Streak = 14-1 O/U
4. Toronto Blue Jays vs. New York Yankees, May 8 – Blue Jays = 20-11=1 O/U (65-percent)… Current Streak = 9-3-1 O/U
DOG TAGS
Early in the season there are two things that are almost sure to happen after any home team wins the first two games of a three-game series. First of all, you can expect the price on a home side to be inflated as books face a rash of public money from bettors who feel the home team is suddenly invincible. Second, the road team will dig in its cleats, get a good grip on the bat and ask a little more from its pitchers in order to avoid the sweep.
Betting the dog in this angle last April produced a 14-3 record and the totals went 5-12 O/U. It was the fifth time in six years the under made money and fourth time in five seasons that the dog brought home a bone. With an average payback of +138, consider betting any desperate April road dog that already lost the first two games of a series.
Remember, a winning system or trend is just the tip of the iceberg in successful betting. Once you find a nice setup with reasonable odds, that’s when the real handicapping begins.