NBA Finals
Vegas Line at this writing: Golden State -6 (202.5)
Series Price: Golden State -240 Cleveland +200
Injury Report as of this writing
Cavs:
G Kyrie Irving (Knee) probable
Warriors:
G Klay Thompson (Concussion) probable
F Marreese Speights (Calf) will reportedly be available
The Warriors have won seven of the last nine in the series of the Cavs, of course the first seven of those games were before Lebron. The teams split two games this year, each winning on their own home court. The Warriors won 112-94 (-13.5) at the Oracle in a game that Lebron did not play. The Cavs returned the favor a month later winning 110-99 (-3) February 26th at the Quick with Cleveland at full strength and rolling.
The Cavs are 12-2 in the playoffs with sweeps over Boston and Atlanta. The Cavs are 8-6 ATS in those games with the Under also going 8-6. Lebron has played in 27 Finals games just by himself. This will be his sixth Game One, he’s 1-4 straight up in his prior five, 0-3 on the road. Cleveland has won its last four playoff road games straight up.
The Warriors are 12-3 in the playoffs, 7-8 ATS and 11-3-1 to the Under in those games. None of the current Warriors have any NBA Finals experience but they been in the playoffs the last few years so they’ve played big games against better teams than they face here. Klay Thompson has passed his concussion protocol tests and is probable. Marreese Speights, a key player off the bench during the regular season will be available after sitting the last two series with a calf injury.
Here in Las Vegas, the series opened up Golden State -270 with the Cavs getting +240 on the takeback. During the first five days of the respite, almost every penny bet was on Lebron and the Cavs as the series price dropped to as low as Warriors -220 with Cleveland dropping to plus +190. This was thought to be all square money with the sharp money waiting for Golden State to hit the magic -200 mark. That hasn’t happened and money has started to trickle back on Golden State with the Warriors currently -240 at this writing. Expect Golden State to close at around the opening number which turned out to be dead on.
Cavs: Players to watch (Probable Starters)
PG Kyrie Irving (18.7, 3.3, 3.8)
C Timofy Mozgov (9.1, 7.2, 0.5)
SG Iman Shumpert (10.1, 5.4, 1.4)
PF Tristan Thompson (9.4, 9.8, 0.5)
SF Lebron James (27.6, 10.4, 8.3)
Warriors: Players to watch (Probable Starters)
PG Steph Curry (29.2, 4.9, 6.4)
C Andrew Bogut (5.3, 8.6, 2.0)
SG Klay Thompson (19.7, 3.7, 2.9)
PF Draymond Green (14.0, 10.8, 5.3)
SF Harrison Barnes (11.3, 5.0, 1.8)
All stats from NBA postseason
Allen’s Angles
Cleveland is 6-13 this year as an Underdog
The Cavs are 13-7 ATS in their L20 with 3+ days rest, 4-3 this year
The Under is 7-3 in the ten Cav games vs. the Pacific Division
The Under is 23-12 in Cleveland games of 3+ or more consecutive wins
Golden State is 5-2 ATS this year playing with 3+ days rest
The Warriors are 14-7 ATS L21 avenging a same season loss
The Under is 7-3 this year when Golden State plays the Central Division
The Warriors are 2-0 this year as a home fave of 3-6, the Over 2-0 in those games