Vegas Line at this writing: Gonzaga -6.5 (No Total at this writing)
Tonight we visit the West Coast Conference where Gonzaga visits St Mary’s on the ESPN2 late show. The 27-1 Zags are perfect except for a three-point loss at Arizona in a game that they had well in hand. The Zags figure to be the No.1 seed in the West if they run the table and this arguably the best team of Mark Few’s 16 year tenure. St Mary’s (20-6, 12-3, RPI 49) needs a win here just to get on the bubble. With the Gaels, BYU and Pepperdine all beating each other up, the WCC will likely be a one-bid conference in the Big Dance unless someone can upset Gonzaga in the WCC Tournament final.
The Zags (-14) won the first go round 68-47 on January 22nd in Spokane. Gonzaga led 27-21 as half before pulling away late, ultimately shooting 27-51 (53%) from the field. St Mary’s finished 2-15 from behind the arc and were unable to shoot their way back into the game. The Zags have won 20 straight but have failed to cover five straight with suitcase, each time laying big big points. The Gaels have won five of seven overall and are 7-1 in Moraga losing only to Pepperdine in a game that they led by 11 at the half. WCC home dogs of eight or less are 8-12 this year.
Gonzaga: The Zags are loaded once again and this edition is far superior to the Kelly Olynyk team of a few years ago that got a top seed and bowed out early. This year, 6’10” swingman Kyle Wiltjer (17.4, 5.6) and 6′ 2″ point guard Kevin Pangos (12.0, 2.8, 4.9) get all the pub but it is the very underrated Euro Zag front court that provides the horsepower. In the middle is 7’1″ 288 pound C Przemek Karnowski who averages 10.3 ppg with 5.8 boards and along with 6’10 Domantas Sabonis (9.3, 7.0) makes drive penetration almost impossible. Sabonis has a royal pedigree, the son of Arvydas Sabonis who played
briefly with the Trailblazers in the late 90s after his knees were spent. If you saw him as a younger player in Europe you would not laugh when you hear some place him in the Top Ten big men of all time in the same company with Wilt, Kareem, Shaq, Bill Russell et. all.
St Mary’s: The Gaels go with a tight seven man rotation and get little from anyone else. Brad Waldow is a big durable post player that has shown marked improvement in each of his four years at St Mary’s. He’s a 19.7/9.1 guy that had 14 points on 6-13 shooting in the first matchup with Gonzaga. Kenny Carter is a 6’2″ shooting guard that averages 12.5 per game and can shoot the rock nailing 43% of his three pointers. Aaron Bright is St Mary’s other double-digit scorer. He’s a fifth year transfer from Stanford where he played 107 games and brings a wealth of experience to the point.
Allen’s Angles
Gonzaga is 4-0 as a road favorite of 3-6 points
The Zags are 14-24 ATS after scoring 80+ points
The Over is 7-2 in the Zags nine true road games
The Under is 25-16 off Gonzaga’s L41 conference wins
The Gaels are 11-3 ATS this year in conference
St Mary’s is 6-1 ATS playing on a day or less rest
St Mary’s is 5-1 to the over L6 playing on a day or less rest
The Under is 12-3 in the Gaels L15 as a dog, 4-0 this year