Vegas Line at this writing: Michigan State -2.5 (No total at writing)
There is the usual full slate of college basketball games this Saturday but the card is sorely missing a marquee matchup early or late. For that reason ESPN will carry two mid-table Big Ten teams as it’s late afternoon offering as Tom Izzo’s Michigan State Spartans travel to Pinnacle Bank Arena to face Tim Miles Nebraska Cornhuskers.
Michigan State is 3-1 SU and ATS in the series since Nebraska joined the Big Ten, winning both games here by 13 and 9 points. Michigan State has split a pair of conference road game losing by 16 at Maryland. The Huskers have won three straight conference home games beating Minnesota 52-49, Illinois 53-43 and Rutgers
by 65-49.
The 13-6 Spartans are off a lackluster 66-60 (-12,134) home win over Penn State on Wednesday. Michigan State is entering the easiest part of their schedule where they play nine straight very winnable games where they figure to be favored in every game. The Spartans lead the Big Ten in three-point shooting but knocked down just 30% of their shots behind the arc against the Nittany Lions. The 11-7 Huskers are off a three-point home (-2, 129) win over Minnesota. The game was a brickfest as both teams combined for just 33 field goals while missing half their foul shots. Nebraska was able to hold on despite going the final eight minutes of the game without a field goal.
Michigan State: The Spartans are led by the backcourt tandem of Denzel Valententine (13.8 ,2.6) and Travis Trice (13.6, 5.6). Izzo hasn’t been all that happy with his backcourt play but went on record this week as saying that he is not concerned about these veterans who he feels will have things worked about by tournament time. Senior Brandon Dawson (11.5, 9.8) was the hero in the win over Penn State with a double-double and takes care of most of the dirty work on the glass. This is not a vintage Izzo team by any means but figures to make some noise in the Big Ten tournament and maybe get out of the first weekend of the Big Dance.
Nebraska: The Cornhuskers have a very real M.O. under Tim Miles, they go as they play defense. That’s been the case again this year, particularly in conference, with Nebraska giving up 53 points or less in their three conference wins and allowing 70 plus in their three conference losses. Nebraska is led by 6’6″ small forward/shooting guard combo Terran Petteway who averages 18.2 ppg, and pulls down five rebound per. At 6’7″ 220, Shavon Shields (16.2/6.7) is a very similar type of wing player player. After that, it is pretty slim pickings for Nebraska with no other player averaging more than 7.6 points-per-game.
Allen’s Angles
Michigan State is 16-8 ATS the L3 years on the road, 2-2 this year
Sparty is just 12-18 in their L30 as a road fave of three or less
The Spartans are shooting just 63.2 from the foul line this year
In two meetings last year, MSU held Nebraska to 41-115 (35%) from the floor
Nebraska is 18-6 L24 as a home dog
The Under is 21-9 in the Huskers L30 home games, 6-0 this year
Nebraska is 29-14 ATS in their L43 conference games, 3-2 this year
The Cornhuskers are 3-8 ATS this year vs. winning records