Vegas Line at this writing: North Carolina -8.5 (152)
While ESPN has decided to go with the barn burning double-header of Wisconsin at Maryland early followed by Florida at Missouri late, arguably the most intriguing matchup of the night comes from tobacco road where North Carolina State meets North Carolina in an ACC rivalry game, The 16-11 (7-7) Wolfpack sit in a logjam right in the middle of a stacked ACC. NC State could use a quality win here for their resume as they are clearly a bubble team at best but with a manageable schedule where they could win out down the stretch. The 19-8 (9-5) Heels trail Louisville by a half game for a piece of fourth place and a bye in the conference tournament. With Duke and the unpredictable Miami on deck, a win here would serve UNC well.
The Tar Heels have won four of five in the series and are 14-3 straight up on this floor over time. UNC won the first go around 81-79 shooting 55% from the field but having to fend off a furious Wolfpack rally. State has won two straight and covered four of five. The Pack is 5-2 as an ACC dog but 5-0 when they get more than four points. North Carolina has lost four of six and is just 1-5 in its L6 as a home favorite. ACC home favorites of 8+ points are 13-18 ATS.
North Carolina State:
The Wolfpack plays a lot of people and has just three double-digit scorers. Junior guard Trevor Lacey is its best player giving you 16.4/4.6/3.5 per game. The Alabama transfer is also NC State’s best deep threat connecting on 41% of his shots beyond the arc. Ralston Turner, a senior LSU transfer shooting guard, averages 12.8 ppg. while third guard Anthony Barber chips in with 11.7 ppg. The dirty work on the boards is done by committee with everyone helping out.
North Carolina:
The Tar Heels also play a lot of players with eight bodies having seen action in all 27 games. The first seven in the rotation average anywhere from 13.6 to 6.3 points-per-game. Junior PG Marcus Paige has become more of a floor general and distributor. He still leads the Heels in scoring but is down considerable from the 17.5 ppg. that he averaged last year. Kennedy Meeks is a 6’9″ 270 pound wide body that drops in 12.9 ppg to go along with 7.5 boards. North Carolina is one of the top rebounding teams in the country and is especially strong on the offensive glass.
Allen’s Angles
The Wolfpack is 21-12 in its L33 as a dog, 5-2 this year
NC State is 5-2 L7 avenging a same year home loss, 2-0 this year
The Pack is 9-3 ATS this year in conference
The Over is 13-6 in games after NC State scores less than 60 points
The Tar Heels are 1-6 ATS after their L7 conference wins
North Carolina is 7-1 ATS after allowing 60 points or less
UNC is 1-6 L7 vs winning records
The Over is 10-4 in Tar Heel ACC games