Vegas Line at this writing: Kentucky -5 (131)
Kentucky beat Wisconsin by a point in this game last year. A little different circumstance this year as last year the Wildcats were an eight-seed and 29-10 at the time. This year, the Cats are 38-0, the top seed in the tournament and looking to make history. Last year, Andrew Harrison’s long three with 5.7 second left gave Kentucky a 74-73 win in Texas. Traveon Jackson’s desperation jumper rimmed out at the buzzer. James Young and Julius Randle (NBA) were the stars on that Kentucky team. Frank Kaminsky had just eight points and five rebounds for the Badgers. Since 1989, two No.1 seeds have faced off six times in the Final Four round with the dog going 5-1.
The key to this game would seemingly be can Kentucky’s defense impose its will on the Badgers and by the same token can the Wisconsin offense impose its will on the Wildcat defense. Wisconsin averaged 80.5 ppg in rolling through their four tournament games while hitting on 37-89 (41.7%) of its threes along the way. The Badgers led the country in points per possession (offensive efficiency) and have turned the ball over just 12% of the time in “The Dance”. Kentucky was No.2 in the country in points allowed this year and allowed its first four opponents just 53 ppg. while allowing just 26.7% of shots from beyond the arc. Each team can spread the floor. Who will hit their shots ???
Wisconsin:
When talking about the Wisconsin Badgers, you have to start with probable National Player of the Year Frank Kaminsky. “The Tank” (18.7, 8.0, 2.7) is a 7-footer with a solid inside/outside game that has nailed better than 40% (39-94) of his three pointers this year. He’s be up against a couple of quicker and more athletic bigs that can come out and guard him in Towns and Cauley-Stein so he just might be more valuable as a distributor here today. Nobody has improved his draft stock in this tournament like 6′ 9″ 230 power forward Sam Dekker. After shooting 33% from downtown for the entire year, his clutch NBA range rainbow threes were a big part of the Badgers advancing to the Final Four. Nigel Hayes (12.6, 6.3) is the other forward that completes one of the top three front courts in the country. Traveon Jackson is a senior guard who scored 25 points against Duke in December but missed most of the Big Ten schedule with an injury. He’s worked his way back into the flow in this tournament and will have to score points here to give Wisky a shot at pulling the upset.
Kentucky:
The Wildcats are just two games from making history and with that John Calipari has tightened his rotation to basically 7-8 guys getting minutes. Stats really mean nothing on this team as it is just a line dance of blue chipper after blue chipper playing for the common good of all. Karl-Anthony Towns was the matchup guy vs. Notre Dame and hit all his second half shots enroute to 25 points against the Irish. He’s surpassed Jahil Okafur as the No.1 pick on many draft boards and would average 20/10 on any other team in the country. Devin Booker, the Harrison twins in the backcourt, Cauley-Stein … you know the drill. 38-0. The No.27 ranked team on offense and No.2 on defense.
Allen’s Angles
Wisconsin is 12-6 ATS in non-conference games this year
The Badgers are 0-3 the L3 years vs. SEC opponents
Wisconsin is 9-6 as a dog the L3 years, 1-0 this year
The Under is 7-4 after the Badgers score 80+
Kentucky is 3-0 ATS this year playing with 5+ days of rest
The Wildcats are 13-10 ATS in L23 neutral court games, 5-4 this year
The Under is 14-2 in UK non-conference games this year
The under is 18-9 in Wildcat games winning records