The AFC East standings show the Dolphins, Bills and Jets all ahead of New England by a game and considering the Pats’ 10-0 straight-up record in Week 1 from 2004 to 2013 (and their 143-44 SU record in all other games since); it’s been a while since anyone was able to say that.
Buffalo hosts Miami in Week 2 and with the Jets taking a likely pounding over at Lambeau; this divisional contest carries more than just bragging rights along with it. Miami had to stage a big comeback and hold off Tom Brady in the fourth. Home field certainly helped but the big offensive line that opened holes for Knowshon Moreno (134 yards on 24 carries) is a concern for Buffalo. At home, the Bills are a .500 team vs. opponents with a star rusher off a big game, but when the line is within three points of ‘Pick em’, Buffalo’s record in the past 6 drops to 1-5 SU/ATS.
Miami still needs to execute, though, and they are 0-6 ATS their last six road games surrounded by home dates. We’ve also got a ‘divisional comeback’ system “live” on the total for this game showing 4 overs and 19 unders all-time (83-percent). Miami only scored 19.8 points per game last season and that average was dragged down by a shutout loss in Buffalo, Week 16. They are 0-4 trying to avenge shutout losses and in what sets up like a letdown game for Miami, we’re backing this to stay under the total.
Pick: Take the Dolphins-Bills Under 43 points
Act and React: Jags at Skins, Week 2
The days leading up to kickoff in Week 2 of the NFL season have been dubbed ‘National Jump to Conclusion Week’ and two of the storylines coming out of Week 1 were “How good Jacksonville looked in the first-half at Philly” and “How bad the Washington Redskins played in Houston”. Leading 17-0 at the break, Jacksonville was poised to pull the upset of the year before getting blanked 34-0 in the second-half. Washington lost 17-6 in Jay Gruden’s debut but that hasn’t stopped sportsbooks from stationing the Skins as a 6-point favorite this week with a total of O/U 43.
There’s pressure this Sunday on Gruden after he was the only one of four first-year coaches to start on the road and fall short of his team’s projected point total. The other three, Mike Zimmer (Minnesota), Mike Pettine (Cleveland) and Ken Whisenhunt (Tennessee) hit 26-plus. We think he’ll fire up the offensive cannons and let RG3 loose, but single-digit road dogs (Jaguars) who blew a lead in their previous game tend to bounce back strong, averaging 22.5 points since 2006.
It might be tempting to lay points on the home side but consider the ATS record of non-divisional home faves who are looking ahead to a divisional game. When their opponent also has a division game on-deck, the home side’s record is just 7-26-1 against the number.
Jacksonville played back-to-back road games three times last year and allowed a minimum of 28 points per game. They also allowed 45 and 42 points in games against mobile quarterbacks. Griffin III may not beat Russell Wilson in the 40 but he can still make defenses pay and in what shapes up as a back and forth battle we’re backing this game to break 43.
Take the Over