NFL Futures: Capping the Coaches, Coordinators
Football teams are always making off-season adjustments through free agency and coaching because let’s face it, if you didn’t win the Super Bowl last February, something’s gotta be done. Occasionally a team will produce great results during their first season with a new coach or star player but usually it takes time for things to set in.
Take the Carolina Panthers for example, who are coming off a 15-1 season followed by a terrific playoff run. The Panthers had the best record in the league last year but in 2010, they were 2-14 SU — the league’s worst record. Head Coach Ron Rivera took over in 2011 and he selected Cam Newton with the first overall pick. Mike Shula was the team’s QB coach and then after 6- and 7-win seasons, Shula was promoted to offensive coordinator.
In Shula’s first year as O-Co, the Panthers won 12 games to win their division. Carolina took a step back in 2014, but rebounded quickly and thier five-year history since 2011 shows 6, 7, 12, 7 and 15 wins. Their season win total (SWT) record since 2011 is 3 overs and 2 unders and Rivera’s first year, the Cats cleared their posted total by 1.5 games.
NEW NFL COACHES & COORDINATORS FOR 2016
As defending Conference champs, there is not much room left for the Panthers to improve but there are 13 teams this season who felt a need for change in one or all of their top coaching/coordinator roles.
Here is a list of all teams in 2016 that have undergone a significant off-season coaching change. Which of these teams is ready to kickstart thier next drive towards greatness?
1. Chicago Bears: New Offensive Coordinator (Dowell Loggains)
2. Cincinnati Bengals: New Offensive Coordinator (Ken Zampese)
3. Cleveland Browns: New HC (Hue Jackson) plus Pep Hamilton & Ray Horton
4. Indianapolis Colts: New Defensive Coordinator (Ted Monachino)
5. Jacksonville Jaguars: New Defensive Coordinator (Todd Wash)
6. Kansas City Chiefs: New Offensive Coordinators (Brad Childress & Matt Nagy)
7. Miami Dolphins: New HC (Adam Gase) plus Clyde Christensen & Vance Joseph
8. New York Giants: New HC (Ben McAdoo) plus Mike Sullivan
9. Philadelphia Eagles: New HC (Doug Pederson) plus Frank Reich & Jim Schwartz
10. San Diego Chargers: New Offensive Coordinator (Ken Whisenhunt)
11. San Francisco 49ers: New HC (Chip Kelly) plus Curtis Modkins & Jim O’Neil
12. Tampa Bay Buccaneers: New HC (Dirk Koetter) plus Todd Monken & Mike Smith
13. Tennessee Titans: New HC (Mike Mularkey) plus Tery Robiskie & Dick LeBeau
CAPPING THIS YEAR’S FRESH CROP
As part of my usual off-season process I have spent considerable time looking at stats, schedules, player moves and personnel changes. Among this group of teams that shuffled their coaching staff, I’ve circled two best bets to come up short on their projected win total.
1. Cleveland Browns UNDER 4.5 at +120
Hue Jackson has an offensive background and he’ll come up with some creative ways to use RG3 but the odds on Robert Griffin III even finishing the season are low. Cleveland’s O-Line ranks near the bottom of the league and once the Browns fall behind, their talented run game (Crowell, Johnson) will be limited.
If RG3 falters or is injured, their backup QB is Josh McCown and he’s never impressed me much. His career record is 17-37 SU and McCown’s past 20 games with significant action he went 3-17 SU (1-6 SU last season with Cleveland). The Browns had the worst scoring margin in the league last year (27-17) and it’s hard to find a real soft spot on their schedule.
2. Miami Dolphins UNDER 7 at -115
The Dolphins schedule starts incredibly tough with road games against the Seahawks and Patriots. It’s the eighth time in 11 years Miami has opened on the road and the past seven, they are just 2-5 SU/ATS in home openers. This year the Fish catch Cleveland in Week 3 and after that, it’s back on the road to Cincinnati. To me this is looking like a 1-3 SU start.
Miami’s following four games are at home and they’ll all be tough (Titans, Steelers, Bills, Jets). Down the stretch, Miami faces Arizona, the Jets, Bills and Patriots and there’s a chance New England could be resting players by then but that depends how Jimmy Garoppolo performs.
The first X-factor with Miami is new HC Adam Gase. He is bound to help improve Ryan Tannehill’s game but something tells me it could take a full season to sink in. This is Gase’s first gig as the head honcho and he’s not going to have as much time to devote to the offense as he might like.
On D, Vance Joseph inherits a unit that gave up 376 yards per game (25th). They couldn’t stop the run (28th) and had a brutal 43-percent stop rate on third down (28th). This is a team in transition and I’ve got them finishing 6-10 at best.
THINK IT “OVER”
The Jaguars are an intriguing story this year with a vastly improved defense and talented playmakers on offense. I had them circled early in the summer for a potential play but their SWT moved from Over 6 at -130 juice up to 7 and then 7.5 Over (-115). Jacksonville could very well hit .500 or better this year but you’ll go broke in this business betting into a bad line. Good luck with your wagers.