Small Inter-Conference home favorites or dogs of any number have failed to live up to the competition in recent years and while books scramble to make adjustments to the spread, there’s a window of opportunity for Over/Under bettors that has cashed at a rate of 80-percent.
First let’s look at the season stats for non-Conference teams in general. These games finished last year at 48 overs, 15 unders and 1 push but so far in 2014, they’ve just puttered along at 12-11 O/U, or 52-percent. That’s understandable; the oddsmakers noticed an imbalance and made a correction. Happens all the time. But there’s a certain group of non-Conference teams, let’s call them the non-contenders, who have won only 20 games straight-up since 2011. Their overall record is 20-40 SU, 24-34-2 ATS (41-percent) and 47 of these 60 games have finished over the posted total.
The criterion is simple: Look for AFC vs. NFC matchups where the home teams aren’t even getting the token -3 points for home field. These small faves, or dogs of any number are allowing their guests to put up 30.3 points per contest and the games are soaring over by more than a touchdown.
This angle is “live” in two games for Week 6: Green Bay (-3, O/U 49) at Miami and the Ravens (-3, O/U 43) vs. the Bucs. Dolphin games are averaging 48 points this year and this game could get to 50 but that lower total in Tampa Bay looks so much more appealing. The Bucs are off a loss but Mike Glennon has sparked new life in this offense. Tampa returns home from a long three-game trip and they have a bye on-deck. This is their chance to make up for those pitiful outings in Week’s 1-2. Baltimore’s off a low scoring loss but needs this win to keep pace in the North. Don’t expect them to go easy.
Take the Ravens and Bucs Over 43 points
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