The Buffalo Bills have trampled their way to seven wins this year on the backs of a solid defense but this week in Denver, Kyle Orton will need to make plays for his team to have a chance at its first three-game winning streak since 2011.
Denver is one of four teams favored by double-digits on the Week 14 NFL odds and when these big home faves return from a divisional win in the second-half of the season their record is 53-11 straight-up. The current line is Denver -10 with a total of 47.5.
This is a return trip to Denver for Kyle Orton, his first visit since Week 17 of the 2011 season when he outclassed Tim Tebow in a 7-3 Chiefs victory. Orton played part of three seasons for the Broncos from 2009-11 and the nine-year NFL vet knows full well that seven points won’t leave a scratch against Peyton Manning.
In true home games, Manning has only scored fewer than 24 points once in 25 starts with the Broncos and his average is 35 points per game (PPG). His latest effort was a 39-36 win over the Dolphins in Week 12 and while the Buffalo rushing D is better than Miami’s, Manning’s record when faced against a team who can fend off the run is 6-1 SU at home, 4-3 ATS and all seven games went over the total by an average 11.5 points per game.
Orton’s career scoring average as a road dog is 16 PPG and he’s only led his team to more than 24 points five times in 29 tries. Getting 10 or more, Orton has just two games on record and his team scored 19 and 23 points and went 1-1 SU/ATS. The loss was in Green Bay when the Pack put up 49 points. The win was at Arrowhead when the Chiefs held the Packers to just 14 points.
Denver’s scoring averages this year are 30.1 points overall and 35.3 at home and in Orton’s last 10 home starts as a Bronco he went 9-1 O/U with games averaging 54.5 total PPG. Orton is not a bad play as a road dog (15-14 ATS) and he should be able to get his team to 17 points in this contest but the odds of Buffalo holding the Broncos to less than 30 are much slimmer. The weather forecast looks good in Denver and we are projecting this game to hit at least 50 points.
Take the Bills and Broncos to go Over 47.5 points
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