The San Diego Chargers take their first shot at the Broncos Thursday since losing 24-17 at Mile High in the second round of last season’s playoffs. Excluding that loss, San Diego is 10-2 SU and 9-3 ATS since December 8th and scoring 27 points per game. If they can somehow overthrow one of the greatest quarterbacks of all-time it will make a sure statement to the rest of the league but that task is much easier said than done.
Although Denver is ‘only’ scoring 31.5 points per game compared to their record 34.9 last year, the Chargers will need a standout performance on both sides of the football to keep pace in this marquee matchup. San Diego has played back-to-back divisional games leading up this contest and when the line is between one and two touchdowns, road dogs in this spot have been a solid play going 16-8 ATS. These big dogs are actually winning half the games outright (12-12 SU) and the more recent record since re-alignment shows a mark of 5-1 against the number.
Those six games produced 2 overs and 4 unders and none of them had a posted total anywhere near the ’51.5’ currently offered by sportsbooks. The average was exactly 10 points less (41.5) yet the games still finished more than seven points under (33.6 points).
One thing to consider with games falling on a short week is time of possession and last week, Denver’s D was on the field for more than 32 minutes. Since 2010, teams who beat the Niners with fewer than 30 minutes time of possession are only outscoring opponents the next week 20.2 to 19.2 (39.4 total). Going back further to 2002, we can see that the games where the opponent had a winning record only finished with an average score around 43 and none of them made it over 51 total points.
The playoff revenge angle is often exaggerated and the truth is, home teams in this spot generally win and cover at a rate of 55-percent. Taking points against the great Peyton Manning is never an easy proposition and neither is betting the under but according to our numbers, both the line and total here may have gone too far. It’ll be a lonely side of the bus but for Week 8’s first two bets, consider taking the Chargers with more than a touchdown and the under at 51.5 points.
For the side of this game – free of charge, call me personally at 1-800-664-8920.