Dallas has entered a stretch of their season in which the Cowboys will play five of six games in the vast confines of AT&T Stadium. The Boys have never really had a chance to get too cozy at the new digs (18-25 ATS) but if they could put together a few more games like that win over New Orleans, it may actually start feeling a bit more like home. This week the Texans are in town and the line is Dallas -6 with a total of 46.5 and by the looks of it, this number could soon hit 47 or more.
Dallas is 9-2 to the over off a win against equal competition including a record of five-straight overs at Cowboy Stadium when the total is 44 points or greater. Since the Cowboys most recent playoff win in the Wild Card Round of the 2009 season, they have also scored an average of more than 30 points per game when home off a home game.
It’s not like they are a great ATS play; their defense can’t take the heat. But if Houston can score 17 points in this game the over has a strong chance of hitting. Dallas has scored 30-plus points seven of the past eight times in this spot!
Houston’s run game was the focus in its first two wins but then against tougher competition, we saw the passing game emerge for 278 yards in Week’s 3-4. It tied in with the injury to Arian Foster (Check status) but if QB Ryan Fitzpatrick can cut down on his turnovers and develop some chemistry with his top targets it will make Houston a threat vs. weaker D units. Dallas ranks 24th in total yards allowed (380) and when facing foes who give up more than 375 YPG the Texans average 21 points per game. The past two years that number jumps to 29 PPG but they also gave up 26, clearing the totals by an average 6.6 points (5-2 O/U).
You don’t want to buy this total at anything higher than 47 but there are still plenty of outs offering the game at 46.5. Invest a couple units on this game getting over the number.
Take the Texans and Cowboys Over 46.5
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