Call it luck for Seattle, call it bad luck for Green Bay but the team who won is here and the past four Super Bowl teams off an OT win are 4-0 SU/ATS (dogs 2-0 SU/ATS). Wilson’s got the touch and I read some place that after last week he’s 10-0 in his career against Super Bowl winning quarterbacks (2-0 vs. Peyton Manning; 3-0 vs. Aaron Rodgers; 1-0 vs. Tom Brady; 2-0 vs. Eli Manning; 2-0 vs. Drew Brees).
Brady and Belichick have always been good off a bye but a lot of those games were at home and I’m willing to bet that home or away, they weren’t facing D’s like this very often. Who knows if the big distraction last week took any air out of their sails? (Weak pun intended) – Brady is getting older, as far as Super Bowl winning QBs go but he looks to be in great shape, his offense is healthy and looking back, the Pats sked seems very methodical since the loss at KC. They earned their way here but against a streaking team like Seattle with a great D, I think NE struggles.
`Capping Notes
1. NE against a mobile QB
The Pats have three games the past three years vs. SEA/SF/CAR and they lost them all SU/ATS.
Wk 6-12: Wilson and the Hawks D were the stars of the show in a one-point Hawks win where Seattle needed 14 points late in the fourth quarter to win 24-23. NE’s offense was ranked No. 1 but home field and league’s toughest D were too much.
Wk 15-12: NE trailed 31-3 at one point, mounted a huge comeback and fell short. Kapper didn’t rush for much but he did throw four TDs
Wk 11-13: Cam Newton led his team in rushing (62 yards), threw for three TDs and mounted a winning fourth quarter drive to win 24-20
2. Belichick’s genius
ESPN said that the Pats are 10-0 SU in the playoffs vs. teams they didn’t face that season. I looked closer at those games and in three roadies, the Pats scored exactly 24 points each time. There was also the Super Bowl win over CAR where NE scored 32 (18 points coming in the fourth quarter). Brady was in his 20’s at the time.
3. Hawks are rolling
Pats are on an 8-0 SU/ATS run at home vs. streakers the past couple years but away they are 2-3 SU/ATS and 1-4 O/U. NE has only scored more than 23 points once in 2013 against BAL. SEA has won eight-straight.
4. Seattle against hotties
Hawks are 8-3 SU and 9-2 ATS in the playoffs vs. teams who have won four or more of their past five games. Only 3 of these 11 games had first quarter points of 10 or more.
5. Hawks away from home
Since Wilson took over the Hawks are 7-1 ATS on the road against winning teams when coming off a home win and they did not allow more than 24 points in one of these eight matchups (22-15 scoring avg).
6. Domes don’t matter
The Hawks were horrible indoors until RW showed up and now they have started to turn things around. Four of the 11 teams they’ve faced indoors since 2012 have scored more than 24 points but the Hawks hold a 24-20 scoring advantage (avg).
SEA has only allowed 10 teams in the past three years to score more than 24 points against them. Only one of these games occurred after Wk 12 and it was on the road in the 2012 playoffs. From Wk 13 out the past three seasons, SEA has outscored opponents 28.1-12.3 on average.
Away from home those averages are 28.6 and 12.8 and only one of 10 teams broke 20 points (ATL in 2012 playoffs)
This may be the best QB they’ve faced in this profile (sound familiar to the warnings people gave before last year’s Super Bowl?)